Workflow
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 03:21

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore's short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: Futures price closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.32%, and the position increased by 1,051 lots to 452,625 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined, and some domestic ore prices remained stable. Basis and spreads had various changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Activity at the SimFer mine site is suspended due to a fatal incident. Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35%, with a position decrease of 46,508 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.86%, with a position decrease of 49,335 lots. Spot prices mostly declined, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - Macro and Industry News: In the week of August 21, rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons. In July, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year - on - year [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5,642 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices and various spreads had different changes [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 22, silicon 72 and 75 prices in different regions were reported, and silicon manganese 6517 prices decreased. From January to July, the average monthly import of South African manganese ore increased by 6.71% year - on - year [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,162 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Coke J2601 closed at 1,678.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan. Spot prices and basis had various changes [15]. - Macro and Industry News: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The 2509 contract's closing price decreased by 0.4% daily and 1.2% weekly. The 2511 contract's trading volume increased by 49.2% daily and 70% weekly. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21].