周报：9月美联储降息概率升超9成，黄金有望迎来新一轮上涨周期-20250825

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to over 90%, which is expected to open up upward momentum for gold prices, indicating a new cycle of price increases [2][12] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are anticipated to benefit from the Fed's dovish stance and the upcoming seasonal demand peak, with expectations of price increases [3][14] - In the new energy metals sector, lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand from the electric vehicle industry [4][19] - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to new regulatory measures that will tighten supply [4][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, which is expected to boost gold prices and initiate a new upward trend [2][12] - Key stocks to watch include established players like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining, as well as emerging stocks like Xijin and Xiaocheng [2][13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, with a focus on the inventory depletion rhythm [3][14] - Key stocks include Baima Jin Chengxin and Cangge Mining, with emerging stocks like Beikong and Minmetals [3][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated, but the demand remains resilient, with a focus on strategic stock positioning [4][19] - Recommended stocks include Yaluka and Jiangte, with additional attention on low-cost nickel projects [4][20] Other Minor Metals - The report notes a significant increase in rare earth prices, driven by new government regulations that will tighten supply [4][21] - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold and Northern Rare Earth [4][23] Market Review - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.3%, with tungsten showing the highest gains among sub-sectors [4][24] - Notable stock performances include Yian Technology with a 28.84% increase and Zhangyuan Tungsten with a 25.23% increase [4][26] Valuation - The report indicates that the copper and aluminum sectors are currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 24.00 times for the non-ferrous industry [4][34] - The aluminum sector is expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and rising demand for green metals [4][34]