Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the main contract of natural rubber futures may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts boosts rubber prices, the supply side has certain support, the demand side shows average performance, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to decline. Key factors to watch include the tri - lateral meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest rate cuts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of zero - tariff policies, the latest developments in EU anti - dumping investigations, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 ranged from 15,470 to 16,020 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend with a total slight decline. As of August 22, 2025, it closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, down 280 points or 1.76% for the week [16]. - Spot Price: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,210 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [20][22]. - Basis and Spread: The basis between the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) and the main natural rubber contract price shrank slightly last week. As of August 22, 2025, the basis was - 975 yuan/ton, 180 yuan/ton smaller than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly last week [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - Geopolitical News: The US plans a tri - lateral meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. The US and Ukraine may sign a 100 - billion - dollar weapon purchase agreement and a 50 - billion - dollar drone cooperation production agreement [30]. - Monetary Policy: Fed Chairman Powell's speech increased the market's bet on a September interest rate cut. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, but some members supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut [31][32]. - Economic Data: The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached a new high since May 2022, while the initial jobless claims increased [31][33]. - Automobile Industry: In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also had significant growth. The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in August is about 1.94 million, with a 6.2% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase [34][36]. 3. Supply - side Situation - Natural Rubber Production: As of June 30, 2025, Thailand's production increased significantly, while Indonesia's production decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in June 2025 was 835,400 tons, a 15.6% increase from the previous month [42]. - Synthetic Rubber Production: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [47][51]. - Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires: As of July 31, 2025, China's import of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,400 tons, a 10.64% month - on - month increase [55]. 4. Demand - side Situation - Tire Enterprise Operating Rate: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.13%, up 1.47% from last week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.76%, up 2.65% from last week [57]. - Automobile Production and Sales: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase and a 7.27% month - on - month decrease; monthly sales were 2.5934 million, a 14.66% year - on - year increase and a 10.71% month - on - month decrease. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 84,885, a 45.62% year - on - year increase and a 13.26% month - on - month decrease [61][64][70]. - Tire Production and Export: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 94.364 million, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million, a 10.51% month - on - month increase [73][77]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - Natural Rubber Futures Inventory: As of August 22, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,470 tons, 1,460 tons less than last week. - Social Inventory and Qingdao Inventory: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.285 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period. The total inventory in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period [86]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas and the landing of Typhoon "Jianyu" in Hainan affect tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a 2.47% month - on - month increase and a 1.91% year - on - year decrease [87]. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Downstream tire manufacturers maintained rigid demand purchases. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year [87]. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, the social inventory increased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [87]. 7. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - Market Outlook: The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts boosts rubber prices, the supply side has certain support, the demand side shows average performance, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to decline. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][88]. - Operation Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying call options on dips. Pay attention to the resistance around 15,900 - 16,000 [10][90].
橡胶周报：降息升温天气扰动，盘面或将震荡偏强-20250825
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-08-25 03:37