碳酸锂周报：情绪扰动降温，锂价震荡偏弱-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last Week's Review: Lithium prices opened significantly higher at the beginning of the week due to the expected expiration of the safety production license of a large lithium mine in Jiangxi. However, the high prices lacked policy and fundamental support, and bulls were conservative. Later in the week, a large salt factory announced复产, causing bulls to exit and prices to decline. Overall, lithium prices fluctuated greatly last week, driven by upstream events, and the fundamental logic did not apply [4]. - Future Outlook: As market sentiment cools, lithium prices may decline. High lithium prices have led to increased production and复产 by upstream lithium salt factories, and the weekly high - frequency supply is at a recent high. The supply disruption expectation may be gradually disproven. Technically, the sharp decline in lithium prices on Friday further confirms the cooling market sentiment. On the demand side, energy storage performance slightly exceeded expectations in August, while the power terminal weakened as expected. Policy continues to correct the market. Without new disturbances, lithium prices may decline [4][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - Price Changes: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, the prices of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 5.92%, 10.43%, and 10.43% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 9.14%, while the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 4.90%. The prices of other related materials also had minor changes [6]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 22, 2025, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 106,055 tons, a decrease of 2,181 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreased by 591 tons, and exchange inventory increased by 1,505 tons [6][13]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of August 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 24,990 tons, with a matching transaction price of 73,480 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 362,200 lots [8]. - Supply Side: As of August 22, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 20,438 tons, an increase of 345 tons from the previous period. A large salt factory in Jiangxi announced复产, but the actual production in August was expected to be limited. High - frequency production was at a high level, and some smelters entered the market for high - level hedging. Supply intensity depends on price, and market sentiment cooling may not significantly reduce supply [8]. - Lithium Salt Import: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Imports from Chile and Argentina decreased [9]. - Lithium Ore Import: In July, the total import of lithium ore was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Imports from Australia increased significantly, while imports from Zimbabwe decreased [10]. - Demand Side - Positive Materials: As of August 22, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased slightly, and their prices also rose. Energy storage orders in August improved, but the supply - driven force of the fundamentals for positive material prices was limited [11]. - New Energy Vehicles: From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. However, the sales growth rate slowed down in the first and middle of August. The new - replacement subsidy policy needs further observation, and demand is expected to be stable but weak [12]. - This Week's Outlook: Market sentiment is cooling, and lithium prices may decline. High lithium prices have stimulated production and复产 by upstream factories, and supply has reached a high level. The supply disruption expectation may be disproven. Technically, market sentiment is cooling. On the demand side, energy storage is better, while the power terminal is weak. In the absence of new disturbances, lithium prices may decline [14]. Industry News - Dazhong Mining: The application for a mining license for a lithium mine in Hunan is in progress at the Ministry of Natural Resources [15]. - Yichang Bangpu: A 450,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production capacity is about to be put into operation [15]. - Jiangte Motor: Yichun Yinli will resume production soon [15]. - Chuanneng Power: The Lijiagou lithium mine is in the production - ramping - up stage [15].