鲍威尔立场偏鸽，铜价企稳反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded mainly because Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting was generally dovish. The market turned optimistic about a September interest rate cut again. Although the US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, there were concerns about the uncertainty of long - term demand after the implementation of tariff policies. Overseas mines remained in a tight supply situation, and the inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season was limited. [2][10] - Overall, Powell indicated that the Fed might need to adjust its policy path in advance to cope with economic downturn risks. The market interpreted it as the Fed abandoning restrictive policies and reopening the door for interest rate cuts. Although the US manufacturing was recovering, there were concerns about the demand outlook after the tariff policy. China maintained the LPR rate unchanged, and the anti - involution sentiment was still fermenting. The stable - growth policy supported the domestic market. Fundamentally, overseas mines remained tight, the domestic off - season inventory accumulation was slow, and the consumption of mainstream industries was resilient. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term. [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Price Changes: From August 15th to August 22nd, LME copper rose by $49.00 to $9809.00 per ton, a 0.50% increase; COMEX copper fell by 2.8 cents to 446.1 cents per pound, a 0.62% decrease; SHFE copper fell by 370 yuan to 78690 yuan per ton, a 0.47% decrease; international copper rose by 170 yuan to 70220 yuan per ton, a 0.24% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.08 to 8.02. The LME spot premium/discount increased by $15.37 to - $78.38 per ton, a - 16.39% change, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased by 75 yuan to 150 yuan per ton. [6] - Inventory Changes: As of August 22nd, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 596,737 tons, a 0.83% increase. LME copper inventory increased by 175 tons to 155,975 tons, a 0.11% increase; COMEX inventory increased by 2416 short tons to 271,482 short tons, a 0.90% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 4663 tons to 81,680 tons, a - 5.40% decrease; Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 7000 tons to 87,600 tons, an 8.68% increase. [9] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: Powell said at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that US inflation was generally under control, but the employment market was weakening. The market optimistically interpreted it as a September interest rate cut being almost certain. The US August Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, much higher than expected, but there were concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed was facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market, and the September interest rate cut expectation had dropped from 95% to about 80%. In China, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged in August. [12] - Supply - demand aspect: Overseas, Codelco's Teniente mine was expected to reduce production by 40,000 tons this year, and the Kamoja project lowered its production forecast by over 100,000 tons. The global concentrate remained in short supply. Domestically, refined copper production remained high, but non - CSPT smelters began to cut production slightly due to the shortage of cold materials. In terms of demand, the power grid investment project construction weakened slightly, the consumption of the wind and solar industries was expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle industry was in the off - season but still had good year - on - year growth. The overall domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but was still resilient year - on - year, and the market was in a tight - balance state. [13] Industry News - First Quantum launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. The project is expected to increase the annual copper production to 250,000 tons by 2044. [16] - After a fatal collapse at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in July, the company estimated a production of 316,000 tons this year (356,000 tons last year) and a loss of $340 million. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance. [17] - Peru's copper production in June was 228,932 tons, a 7.1% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the increase in production of Chinese - funded enterprises. However, the Las Bambas mine expected a production decline in July due to protests. Peru's copper production in the first half of 2025 was about 1.34 million tons, a 3.5% year - on - year increase. [17] - The processing fee for 8mm T1 wire and cable rods in the East China Yangtze River Delta market was stable last week, and the recycled copper rod market price fluctuated slightly. The transaction in the refined copper rod market declined, and it is expected that the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises will recover to over 70% in late August. [18][19] Relevant Charts A series of charts show the historical trends of copper prices, inventory, premiums/discounts, spreads, and other indicators, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., which provide references for analyzing the copper market. [20][25][31]