鸡蛋周报：“旺季不旺”困局难破，蛋价持续探底之路-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - In - laying Hen Inventory: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - Shipping Volume in Producing Areas: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - Old Hen Slaughter: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - Arrival Volume in Selling Areas: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - Single - side: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].