铜周报：美联储主席暗示可能下月降息，沪铜或震荡偏强运行-20250825

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [6][44] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating and slightly weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 78,490 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 79,290 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices fluctuated, with contract prices ranging from 9,671 - 9,791 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In July, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value [16] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted on the 22nd that despite current inflationary risks, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months [43] 3. Spot Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,825 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 79,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The electrolytic copper premium was around 135 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 37.65 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 3.76 cents/pound. In July 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month, but a 14% year - on - year increase [25] - As of July 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly automobile output was 2.5102 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [30] 5. Inventory Situation - As of August 22, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,698 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons from the previous week. As of August 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 7.26%. As of August 21, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,160 tons from the previous trading day [34] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 800 tons from the previous week [34] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the content in the macroeconomic aspect and supply - demand and inventory parts, including industrial added - value growth, Fed's potential interest - rate cut, copper smelting fees, refined copper output, copper product and automobile output, and inventory changes [43] 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [44]