螺纹周报：焦煤限产再起波澜，钢价或出现反弹转机-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Rebar 2601 contract fell 2.05%. On Friday night, affected by coking enterprise production restrictions, coking coal drove up steel prices. The black market outlook remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [5] - The operation suggestions are to take a bullish approach on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [5][39] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Focuses on the daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract [8] Spot Price - As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [12][15] Basis and Spread - Involves the rebar basis (active contract) [18] Important Market Information - On August 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term. [19] - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association stated that the steel industry will continue its stable and positive trend. Domestic steel consumption has decreased from nearly 1 billion tons to 892 million tons in recent years and is expected to continue to decline slowly but will remain above 800 million tons before 2030. [19] Supply - side Situation - Covers the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and rebar production [20][22] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a 4.2% month - on - month increase. [27] - This section also includes data on construction new starts, construction and completion floor areas, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw purchases. [29][30][32] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,444.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 62.63 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 341.04 million tons, a decrease of 5.76 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 13,845.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.93 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 325.74 million tons, a decrease of 8.93 million tons. [35][36] - In July, the national raw coal output was 38,099 million tons, the lowest since May 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. [36] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, an increase of 0.08%; the average daily coke output was 65.45 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons; the coke inventory was 64.37 million tons, an increase of 1.86 million tons; the total coking coal inventory was 966.41 million tons, a decrease of 10.47 million tons; the available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. [36] - There are rumors that Shandong coking enterprises will limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. Currently, a few Shandong coking enterprises have further increased production restrictions to 20% - 30%, and the restriction ratio will continue to rise. [5][36] - In July 2025, global crude steel production was 150 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, it was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. China's steel output in July was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. [5][36] - In mid - August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 400,000 tons (5.0% increase); compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 1.72 million tons (16.9% decrease). Different regions had different inventory changes. [37] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 5.89%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.95%; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 63.64%; the average daily hot metal output was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. [37] - The PPA data shows that the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in July 2025 decreased to 45.9693 million tons from 54.5848 million tons in June. [37] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The outlook for the black market remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [38] Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. - For options, sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [39]