纯碱周报：纯碱利润端持续恶化-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The core contradiction in the soda ash market remains unchanged, with high supply, high inventory, and weak demand continuing to suppress prices. Although the profit margin of the soda ash industry is deteriorating, large - scale and deep - seated losses have not occurred. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the near term, and attention should be paid to the cost support of raw material prices such as coal and fundamental changes [9][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - Production and Capacity Utilization: As of August 21, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.32% to 771,400 tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rose to 88.48%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 346,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 425,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 91%, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the overall capacity utilization rate of combined production process was 83.65%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more decreased by 1.90% week - on - week [10][12]. - Inventory: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons, or 0.71%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 688,100 tons, or 56.28%. The inventory accumulation slowed down [14]. - Shipment Volume and Shipment Rate: The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises this week was 754,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97%; the overall shipment rate was 97.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57 percentage points. The production and sales rate of enterprises was close to balance [17]. - Profit Analysis: As of August 21, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was 11.90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of combined - process soda ash (double - ton) was - 8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton [20][24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation - Float Glass Industry Production: As of August 21, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 14th. The weekly production of national float glass from August 15 - 21, 2025 was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.16% [27]. - Float Glass Industry Inventory: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 heavy boxes, or 0.28%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. The inventory days were 27.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period [31]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The prices of some products in the domestic soda ash market changed. The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 10 yuan/ton, or 1.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 17 yuan/ton, or 1.46%; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, or 1.11%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 107 yuan/ton, or 4.76%. The prices of some products remained unchanged, and the prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions decreased [37][39]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The high supply, high inventory, and weak demand in the soda ash market continued to suppress prices. The profit margin deteriorated rapidly, and the downstream float glass inventory was high, and the recovery of the real - estate chain was slow, suppressing the restocking space. - The industry has not yet experienced large - scale and deep - seated losses, and it may not be the right time for policies to force capacity reduction. - It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the near term, and attention should be paid to the cost support of raw material prices such as coal and fundamental changes [40]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - Single - side Trading: The short - term rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound and then go short, and focus on the support strength of cash - flow cost. - Arbitrage: Wait for the opportunity of inter - period reverse arbitrage, as the near - month contracts are more obviously suppressed by high inventory. - Options: Industrial enterprises can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or constructing bear - spread strategies for hedging to prevent the risk of continuous price decline [41].