生猪周报：出栏体重略增猪价震荡调整-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 2511 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: There are no major fundamental contradictions, and the live pig contract fluctuates and adjusts. On August 22, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was -70 yuan/ton, compared to -135 yuan/ton on August 15 [2][3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The monthly spreads fluctuate and adjust [7][10]. 2. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated and adjusted [13]. - Regional Price Difference: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [15]. - Fat - Standard Price Difference: The fat - standard price difference fluctuates strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will enhance the market's willingness to increase the weight of pigs [17]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - White Price Difference: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - performance of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakens, and the cost - performance of frozen products is inferior to that of fresh products [21]. - Breeding Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [23]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, and subsequent weight changes should be monitored [25]. 3. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [27]. - Sow Culling Situation: This week, the price of culled sows was weak. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In July, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [32]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight decline, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the inventory reduction stage for frozen products, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and the impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].