工业硅周报：行业自律逐步兑现，工业硅震荡上行-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were the continuous fermentation of the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment in China, the strong performance of the polysilicon futures market boosting the price expectation of silicon materials, and the supply side maintaining a tight situation during the off - season to cope with the risk of downstream production capacity contraction [2][5][9]. - Overall, the self - discipline in the photovoltaic industry is gradually being implemented. The Fed may shift to a loose monetary policy in advance, providing a relatively abundant liquidity environment for commodities. China's growth - stabilizing policies will continue to support the economic fundamentals. Technically, the futures price has broken through the 8700 level and is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term [2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | 8/22 | 8/15 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8745.00 | 8805.00 | - 60.00 | - 0.68% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9250.00 | 9400.00 | - 150.00 | - 1.60% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9050.00 | 9200.00 | - 150.00 | - 1.63% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9600.00 | 9750.00 | - 150.00 | - 1.54% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10550.00 | 10800.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.31% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10750.00 | 11400.00 | - 650.00 | - 5.70% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 47.00 | 44.00 | 3.00 | 6.82% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 54.3 | 54.5 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply: The operating rate in Xinjiang slightly increased to 58%, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan was generally low, and the increase in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other places was limited, so the supply side remained tight [2][5][9]. - Demand: Under the self - discipline agreement of the polysilicon industry, manufacturers were strongly advocating price hikes, but some downstream sectors were slightly resistant to price increases. The silicon wafer enterprises actively responded to the anti - cut - throat competition call, and their inventories were gradually returning to a reasonable level. The overall orders of photovoltaic cells were stable, and some enterprises expressed their willingness to raise prices following the raw materials. The component sector was under great production pressure, facing the dual pressures of rising raw material costs and weakening terminal demand [2][5][7]. - Inventory: As of August 22, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 543,000 tons, and the exchange registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase. After the exchange issued new regulations on delivery standards, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the new standards were actively registered [8]. Industry News - Arctech: In the first half of 2025, Arctech achieved an operating income of 21.052 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 731 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.01%. The company actively limited production to maintain prices, and it was expected that the component shipments in the third quarter would be adjusted to 5.0 - 5.3GW, and the annual component shipments would reach 25 - 27GW [10]. - Trump's Statement: Trump said that his government would not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects, which would further increase the concerns of renewable energy enterprises. He blamed the rising electricity prices in the US on renewable energy [11]. Relevant Charts The report includes charts showing industrial silicon production, exports, inventory, and prices of related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon DMC, which visually display the historical data and trends of these indicators [13][16][18]