Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting boosted market expectations for a September interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and significantly increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down across the board and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier stated measures to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, enhancing policy stimulus expectations. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and trading suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation; various commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Asset trends and trading suggestions: The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation. Among commodity sectors, the black metals are expected to correct in the short term, the non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, the energy and chemical sectors are expected to rebound with volatility, and precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, all suggesting cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - Market performance: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and securities, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. - Fundamentals and policies: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations increased, and the extension of the tariff truce reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased marginally. - Operation suggestion: Cautious short - term long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Market performance: Precious metals rose significantly last Friday. The international gold price rebounded above the $3350/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold closed at around 781.12 yuan/gram. - Influencing factors: Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, high manufacturing PMI but rising initial jobless claims, and the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Outlook: Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude. Focus on the next stage of employment data [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Market performance: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. - Fundamentals: Demand remained weak, and the inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons week - on - week. The output of building materials decreased, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.65 tons. There were rumors of production regulation in Cangzhou, and iron - water output may further decline. - Outlook: The steel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits were high, and iron - water output increased slightly. With the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be upgraded. Steel mills mainly replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis. The supply increased, with the global iron - ore shipment volume increasing by 359.9 tons and the arrival volume increasing by 94.7 tons week - on - week. Port inventories showed an increasing trend. - Outlook: Iron - ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market performance: The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained flat last Friday, while the futures prices continued to decline. - Fundamentals: The prices of manganese ore were weak. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers was high, with the national capacity utilization rate of silicomanganese increasing by 2.32% to 45.75% and the daily output increasing by 1605 tons. The national capacity utilization rate of ferrosilicon increased by 1.86% to 36.18%, and the daily output increased by 535 tons. - Outlook: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [5][6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda - ash contract was weakly running last week. - Fundamentals: Supply increased week - on - week due to the return from previous maintenance, and there was new capacity coming on - stream. Demand remained stable week - on - week, but was still weak compared to the same period in previous years. Profits decreased week - on - week. - Outlook: Soda ash is in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is likely to decline rather than rise [7]. Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract was weakly running last week. - Fundamentals: Supply remained stable, with no change in production capacity and the number of production lines. Demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as glass prices fell. - Outlook: Glass supply is stable, demand has limited growth, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro - factors: Powell's speech increased expectations for a September interest rate cut, but some Fed members were cautious about rate cuts. Tariffs still affected the economy. - Supply and demand: Copper mine production growth was higher than expected, and refined - copper production was unlikely to decrease significantly. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally. - Outlook: The strong trend of copper prices may not last [8][9]. Aluminum - Market performance: Aluminum prices rose slightly last Friday but closed with a long upper shadow. - Inventory situation: Aluminum inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, but domestic social inventory has increased by nearly 15 tons, and LME inventory has increased by about 14 tons since the low point in late June. - Outlook: The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a possibility of forming a double - top pattern [9]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply and demand: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some enterprises. It is currently the off - season, and demand is weak. - Outlook: Prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - Supply side: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. Although the mine supply is currently tight, the reduction in refined - tin production is lower than expected. Some enterprises plan to carry out maintenance. - Demand side: Terminal demand is weak, but price drops have stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9278 tons this week. - Outlook: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Production situation: As of August 21, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 4.2% to 19138 tons, and the operating rate was 49.93%. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium - spodumene production increased. - Outlook: It is expected to be widely volatile, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - Production situation: The latest weekly production increased by 7.2% to 87801 tons. The number of open furnaces increased by 13 to 297, and the furnace - opening rate was 37%. - Outlook: It is expected to be strongly volatile, as the price is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises [11]. Polysilicon - Market situation: It is the focus of anti - involution, and the spot price has rebounded. The component procurement and bidding price has increased. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded slightly due to geopolitical risks, stable spot - market decline, and unexpected inventory reduction in the US. - Outlook: There may be slight short - term upward space, but the long - term outlook is bearish [12]. Asphalt - Market situation: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and the rebound of international crude - oil prices, the spot market has recovered slightly, and the basis decline has paused. However, inventory reduction is limited. - Outlook: It is expected to be weakly volatile in the near term [13]. PX - Market situation: PTA demand has decreased due to low processing fees and planned outages. PX is supported by petrochemical capacity adjustment, but the device load is at a medium - low level. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [13]. PTA - Market situation: Driven by capacity adjustment and a temporary shutdown of a device in Huizhou, the futures price has risen, and the basis has recovered. Downstream operating rates have recovered to 90%, and inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September. - Outlook: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - Market situation: Port inventory decreased to 54.3 tons. Restrictions on petrochemical capacity have provided support, but the supply pressure is still large after the restart of syngas - based devices. - Outlook: Downstream operating - rate recovery will support prices, but beware of crude - oil cost fluctuations when going long at low prices [14]. Short - fiber - Market situation: Driven by the sector's rebound, short - fiber prices rose slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the operating rate rebounded slightly, with limited inventory accumulation. - Outlook: It may continue to be shorted in the medium term following the polyester sector [15][16]. Methanol - Market situation: Inland devices restarted, and the arrival of goods was concentrated, putting pressure on prices. However, the reflux window is about to open, and MTO devices plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. - Outlook: Prices are expected to be volatile [16]. PP - Market situation: Device operating rates increased, and new capacity is to be put into production, increasing supply pressure. Downstream operating rates increased slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [16]. LLDPE - Market situation: Supply pressure remains high, and demand shows signs of a turnaround. "Supply - side" speculation provides some support. - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract is short - term weak, focusing on demand and inventory - building [16]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Market situation: The Pro Farmer report estimated the new - crop soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, slightly lower than the USDA report. Policy expectations have improved, and the impact of the historical exemption of US soybean oil is limited, providing support for the market. - Outlook: It may rise, but beware of seasonal pressure during the harvest season [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Inventory situation: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The rumor of imported - soybean auctions has stabilized supply expectations. - Supply and demand outlook: Supply is sufficient in the third quarter, and supply and demand may shrink in the fourth quarter, with a strong cost expectation. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly widened. - Outlook: Rapeseed meal still has room for upward fluctuations [17][18]. Fats and Oils - Market situation: US soybean oil prices rose due to stable policy expectations. International soybean and palm oil prices rose, and domestic oils may continue the upward trend. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has the potential for a low - valuation rebound. Palm oil may enter a volatile phase. - Outlook: Domestic oils may continue the upward trend, and palm oil may be volatile [18]. Corn - Market situation: In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as last year, and the carry - over inventory is low. - Outlook: The futures price has entered a relatively undervalued range, and there is little possibility of breaking through last year's range [18]. Live Pigs - Market situation: Pig weight has decreased, and the price difference between fattened and standard pigs has increased. Some secondary fattening has increased, but the overall replenishment volume is limited. The "inspection for every vehicle and every pig" policy in September will increase transportation costs. - Outlook: Market sentiment for the fourth quarter is pessimistic [19].
研究所晨会观点精萃：美联储主席释放降息信号，全球风险偏好大幅升温-20250825
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-08-25 04:04