中辉期货聚酯早报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on dips [1] - PP: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7] - LPG: Cost - end oil price stabilizes and rebounds, with valuation repaired. Long positions should be taken profit due to potential cost - end weakness [1][13] - L: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced. Consider going long on dips [1][17] - PP: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains. Consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1][22] - PVC: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices. Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment [1][27] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized. Short - term bullish [1][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery. Consider going long on dips [2][35] - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Bullish due to low inventory and cost support [2][39] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [2][42] - Urea: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good. 01 long positions can be held, and call options can be sold [2][46] - Asphalt: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases. Consider shorting with a light position [3] - Glass: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient. Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] - Soda Ash: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid. Short - term bullish [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: On August 22, WTI rose 0.22%, Brent fell 0.66%, and SC rose 0.88% [6] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors boost short - term prices, but long - term supply surplus pressure increases. Focus on the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] - Fundamentals: Libya plans to increase production, India's imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [8] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [9] LPG - Market Review: On August 22, the PG main contract closed at 4392 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [11] - Basic Logic: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Follow the oil price trend [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions due to potential cost - end weakness, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [13] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [16] - Basic Logic: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on dips, and focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [17] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [20] - Basic Logic: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on short - term pullbacks, and focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [22] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25] - Basic Logic: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices, but supply and inventory pressure exist [27] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, and focus on the range of [5000 - 5100] for V [27] PX - Market Review: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [30] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized [31] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6940 - 7050] for PX511 [32] PTA - Market Review: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [34] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, sell put options, and consider buying TA on dips. Focus on the range of [4850 - 4930] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [38] - Basic Logic: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Low inventory and cost support [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips and the 9 - 1 calendar spread. Focus on the range of [4470 - 4550] for EG01 [40] Methanol - Market Review: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [41] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize [42] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [43] Urea - Market Review: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [45] - Basic Logic: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good [46] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1730 - 1760] for UR01 [47] Asphalt - Market Review: Not provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short with a light position [3] Glass - Market Review: Not provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] Soda Ash - Market Review: Not provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term bullish [3]