宁证期货今日早评-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term sentiment for some commodities is positive, such as short - term long positions for live pigs, palm oil, and crude oil; while some are expected to be range - bound, like coking coal, methanol, etc.; and some are expected to be weak, like domestic soybeans [1][2][4][5][12]. - The market for each commodity is affected by various factors including supply, demand, policy, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the live pig market is influenced by supply reduction from farmers' price - holding and increased demand; the coking coal market is affected by supply disruptions and demand from coke enterprises [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Live Pigs - As of August 22, the average slaughter weight was 123.38 kg, up 0.15 kg; the weekly slaughter start - up rate was 28.83%, down 0.18%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 214.73 yuan/head, down 10.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit was - 9.19 yuan/head, down 21.02 yuan/head; and the piglet price was 364.29 yuan/head, down 19.04 yuan/head [1]. - After the price decline, farmers are holding prices. With the weather getting colder, demand slightly increases, and some second - fattening enters the market. The state's purchase and storage can boost prices in the short - term, and with positive macro - economic expectations, short - term long positions can be held, with the LH2511 contract having a support level of 13700. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [1]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08%; the daily coke output was 65.45 (in 10,000 tons), up 0.07; coke inventory was 64.37 (in 10,000 tons), up 1.86; coking coal total inventory was 966.41 (in 10,000 tons), down 10.47; and the available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, down 0.13 days [2]. - Some mines in main production areas have resumed production, but there are new production - halting mines in Shanxi. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has increased. Coke production has increased slightly, but coke enterprises maintain a strategy of purchasing on demand, and upstream mines have started to accumulate inventory slightly. The supply recovery is limited, and the demand is supported by the rigid demand and low inventory of coke enterprises. The short - term futures price is supported, and range - bound operation is recommended [2]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with different growth rates in different regions [4]. - Indonesia's low inventory in June indicates less inventory pressure this year, which supports the palm oil price. With the approaching consumption season, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking at low prices. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [4]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 1.765 billion tons, a 3% year - on - year increase; the planting area is expected to reach 48.7 million hectares, a 2% year - on - year increase, the lowest growth rate in five years [5]. - The domestic soybean fundamentals are weak. The state reserve's continuous auction of old soybeans increases supply, and the recent auctions have had a good transaction rate, suppressing the price of 2024 old soybeans. As new soybeans are approaching the market, supply pressure is increasing, and demand has not improved significantly. The domestic soybean price is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. Rebar - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a 0.23 - percentage - point decrease from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease; and the daily average hot metal output was 2.4075 million tons, a 0.09 - 10,000 - ton increase [6]. - Some steel mills have short - term rolling mill maintenance and hot metal transfer, resulting in a decline in rebar production. As the off - season is ending, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade, and rebar demand has improved month - on - month, with slower inventory accumulation. With the end of the off - season, limited callback space for the futures price is expected, and future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 144.442 million tons, a 626,300 - ton increase; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4104 million tons, a 57,600，- ton decrease; and the number of ships at ports was 97, a decrease of 3 [7]. - After Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, leading to a slight increase in iron ore prices. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly rebounded. Demand is expected to remain high as hot metal production is increasing slightly. The port inventory is accumulating, and the total inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at the current level [7]. Gold - After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, multiple Fed officials made statements, and the Fed still faces various internal differences and challenges. The market has started to trade on the rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index has fallen, and gold has risen [8]. - Gold has a short - term rebound demand, may fluctuate and be bullish in the short term, but remains bearish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between the US dollar and gold [8]. Silver - After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [8]. - The global risk appetite has increased significantly, which is bullish for silver. The silver price is expected to fluctuate and be bullish [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 60 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing in August. After this operation, the central bank will have a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan this month, the sixth consecutive month of increased operations [9]. - The continuous MLF injection releases medium - term liquidity. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, the risk appetite in the market has increased. In the context of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, long - term bonds are expected to fluctuate and be bearish. Short - selling long - term bonds at key resistance levels is recommended [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton decrease; the port inventory was 1.076 million tons, a 54,200 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, a 15,200 - ton increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 207,400 tons, a 12,000 - ton decrease; and the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 72.36%, a 0.34 - percentage - point decrease [10]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and increasing, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is continuing to accumulate. The September import volume is expected to remain high. The inland methanol market is slightly weak, and the port basis is stable, with general spot transactions. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 2,415. Observation or short - term long - buying on dips is recommended [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide was 1,319 yuan/ton, fluctuating weakly recently; the weekly production was 771,400 tons, a 1.33% increase; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase; the float glass start - up rate was 75.34%, unchanged from last week; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1,149 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase; and the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight cases, a 0.28% increase [11]. - Float glass production is stable, with slightly increasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable. Some enterprises are reducing production, and overall supply is expected to decline this week. Downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 1,310. Observation is recommended [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 7,001 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 78.23%, a 0.24 - percentage - point increase; the average downstream industry start - up rate was 49.53%, a 0.18 - percentage - point increase; the commercial inventory was 800,600 tons, a 26,800 - ton decrease; and the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins was 730,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [11]. - Polypropylene production is stable, overall supply is still abundant, and commercial inventory is decreasing but remains higher than the previous two years. In the context of loose supply and demand, commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in stages. The market price is fluctuating weakly, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 7,030. Observation or short - term long - buying on dips is recommended [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 22, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 411, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and 72 from the same period last year [12]. - Oil prices have rebounded in the past week. The EIA report shows a decline in crude oil inventory, and India is buying Russian oil, temporarily alleviating concerns about oversupply. The Russia - Ukraine issue remains to be observed. Demand has marginally improved, and short - term long - trading is recommended [12]. PX - The operating rate of the Chinese PX industry increased by 0.3 to 84.6%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, with little change in plant operations this week. The Asian PX industry operating rate increased by 2.2% to 76.3%, also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [13]. - This week, the PX supply - demand situation has weakened marginally. However, with the increasing expectation of a US rate cut in September and the call for rectifying old - fashioned production capacity in the industry, the chemical sector is generally strong. The unexpected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou last Thursday drove up the PTA price, which in turn drove up the PX price. Observation or cautious short - term long - trading is recommended [13]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 55 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 49.5 Thai baht/kg. As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a 2.76 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.81 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a 2.35 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [14]. - The rainy season in Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas is affecting rubber tapping, while rubber tapping in Cote d'Ivoire is expected to be normal as it enters the dry season. Global supply follows the seasonal pattern. On the demand side, the domestic tire industry's production activities have not improved significantly, with poor replacement tire demand and a decline in tire export growth. Rubber is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Observation or cautious short - term long - trading around the 15,500 area is recommended [14].