铁矿石：美联储降息预期强化短期矿价偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The price will be more affected by the macro situation next week and is expected to run with an upward bias in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian Iron Ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - Last week, the macro - level disturbances weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, and the market trading focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of threaded steel on the finished product side depressed the valuation level of the black series. The high - profit of blast furnaces at a high level declined, limiting the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply also inhibited the market, and the price generally followed the sector trend [2] 3.2 Supply - The recovery of foreign ore shipments exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments were stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support on the supply side weakens [2] 3.3 Demand - The average daily molten iron output in China has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current average daily molten iron output at 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices weakens marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron can maintain a high level and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] 3.4 Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has decreased month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of molten iron from a high level, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2]