国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - Silver: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - Zinc: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - Tin: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - Nickel: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - Stainless Steel: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - Crude Oil - related: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - Fuel Oil: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - LPG: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - Polysilicon: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - PTA and PX: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - MEG: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - Soybean Oil: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - Iron Ore: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - Log: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].