Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for rebound buying. In the long - term, they are expected to rise, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with long - term optimism due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. Zinc is expected to have limited upside space in the short - term, and a rebound short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and industrial silicon are expected to have short - term rebounds. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short - term, gold has support around 770 and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100 and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise. Copper short - term long positions should be held, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Zinc short - term attention should be paid to filling the upper gap, and long - term rebound short - selling is recommended. Aluminum short - term attention should be paid to taking profits and observing. Nickel and stainless steel short - term should take profits on dips. Lithium carbonate can be bought at low levels after stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average [1][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in liquidity expectations, leading to a notable rise in the gold and silver markets [2]. - Basic Logic: Powell's statement exceeded expectations, paving the way for a possible September interest rate cut; Germany's economic concerns deepened with a significant contraction in Q2 GDP; Trump is conducting a major tariff investigation on furniture products, and Canada has adjusted some tariffs. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has support around 770, pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and returned to the 79,000 level [6]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally in the future. Currently in the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Global copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, continue to hold long copper positions, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Long - term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to filling the upper gap [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc rebounded due to Powell's dovish remarks, but the upside space may be limited. Short - term, previous short positions can take profits and wait and see. Long - term, maintain the view of rebound short - selling. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded and recovered, and alumina showed a slight stabilizing trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cut expectations are obvious, with a decline in costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to remain loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Shanghai aluminum should focus on taking short - term profits and observing, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,000] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices stabilized, and stainless steel rebounded from a low level [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro sentiment is positive. Nickel ore prices are weak, and smelters are at a loss. Nickel production increased in July, and inventory accumulated again. Stainless steel production cuts weakened, and the off - season pressure remains [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Nickel and stainless steel should take short - term profits on dips, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved low, with a decline of more than 4% [20]. - Industrial Logic: Supply production increased slightly, and demand is approaching the peak season. Downstream factories are stocking up, and the total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating good demand. After stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average, it can be bought at low levels [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [78,000 - 81,000] yuan/ton [22].
中辉有色观点-20250825
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-25 05:26