格林大华期货早盘提示-三油两粕-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is bullish on the medium - to long - term outlook for vegetable oils, suggesting retaining existing long positions and adding new ones in small amounts. It also maintains a medium - term bullish view on double - meal products and recommends new long positions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 22, supported by macro factors and pressure release after previous adjustments, the vegetable oil futures market closed higher. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all saw price increases and position growth, except for the secondary main contract of rapeseed oil which had a slight position reduction [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - At the global central bank annual meeting on August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was extremely dovish, increasing the probability of a rate cut and boosting global financial market enthusiasm. - The US Environmental Protection Agency approved some exemption applications for small refineries, which is expected to maintain or increase the overall demand for biofuels, benefiting the demand for soybean oil as a key raw material for biodiesel. - Canada's AAFC estimated the country's rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate. The governor of Saskatchewan plans to visit China to discuss rapeseed issues. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.2% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Powell's dovish remarks increased the expectation of a US rate cut in September, and the US bio - diesel policy was favorable, leading to a sharp rise in US soybean oil. The strong export data supported the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, policies and macro - economic factors were positive, and the inventory of the three major oils rebounded, mainly driven by soybean oil. With the approaching of the autumn semester and Mid - Autumn Festival, demand is expected to increase, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may peak soon and then gradually decline, with the possibility of an increase in spot basis quotes [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, hold existing long positions and add new ones in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 22, rumors of state - reserve auctions and expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest weakened South American discounts, causing double - meal futures prices to decline [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Midwest Pro Farmer crop tour results showed a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans this year, increasing supply - side pressure. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, US soybean export sales met expectations, with new - crop soybean sales exceeding expectations. - Brazil's Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in August would increase [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,078 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,515 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, although the US soybean yield exceeded expectations, market rumors of Chinese purchases and possible state - reserve auctions eased the supply - shortage expectation for the first quarter of next year, causing the double - meal futures prices to decline. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was at a high level, but market transactions improved, and the upward trend of the spot price remained unchanged [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, new long positions can be established. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3].