Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Overall - Short - term adjustment is expected for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with opportunities for short - term long positions after adjustment [1]. - Short - term bullish trends are predicted for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with a focus on buying on dips [1]. - Cautious bullishness is advised for cotton, red dates, and live pigs, with specific trading strategies proposed according to different market conditions [1]. By Variety - Soybean Meal: Short - term adjustment, with short - term long opportunities after adjustment due to ProFarmer's lower - than - expected US soybean yield forecast and consideration of Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term adjustment, with opportunities for short - term long positions after stabilization. High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast are influencing factors [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory are positive factors [1][9]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish, awaiting the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Domestic spot market has good pre - holiday stocking [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term bullish, with prices mainly following other competing oils due to limited new developments in anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and Australian rapeseed purchases [1]. - Cotton: Cautious bullish, with opportunities to buy on dips. Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations [1][13]. - Red Dates: Cautious bullish, with a strategy of buying on dips. Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory [1][16]. - Live Pigs: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion to avoid short - selling blindly in the short term. High - level medium - and long - term inventory, shrinking incremental space, and potential capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts [1][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price Data: Futures price (main contract) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day. National average spot price is 3084.29 yuan/ton, down 12.85 yuan or 0.41% [2]. - Inventory Data: As of August 15, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, down 1.20 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 680.4 million tons, down 30.16 million tons or 4.24% from last week; bean meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, up 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [3]. - Market Analysis: ProFarmer's US soybean yield forecast is lower than the USDA's August forecast, which is bullish. Considering Sino - US trade, short - term long opportunities can be considered after adjustment [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: Futures price (main contract) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day. National average spot price is 2608.95 yuan/ton, down 18.94 yuan or 0.72% [5]. - Inventory Data: As of August 15, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, down 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons from last week; unexecuted contracts are 5.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last week [5]. - Market Analysis: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast have cooled market speculation. Short - term long opportunities can be considered after stabilization, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][6]. Palm Oil - Price Data: Futures price (main contract) is 9592 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. National average price is 9553 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.31% [7]. - Inventory Data: As of August 15, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [9]. - Export Data: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 17.5% (AmSpec) and 37.19% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [9]. - Market Analysis: Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory support a short - term bullish view. Buying on dips is recommended, while paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated Malaysian palm oil inventory this month [1][9]. Cotton - Price Data: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 is 14030 yuan/ton, and domestic spot price is 15246 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [10][11]. - Inventory Data: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is 71.26 million tons, lower than the same period by 29.7 million tons [12]. - Demand Data: Spinning mill operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%; weaving mill operating rate is 37%, up 0.2%; spinning mill orders are 11.42 days, up 3.06 days [12]. - Market Analysis: Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations. Buying on dips is recommended, and the long - short rhythm can be adjusted according to demand in September [1][13]. Red Dates - Price Data: Red dates main contract CJ2601 is 11235 yuan/ton, down 2.47% [14][15]. - Inventory Data: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from the previous period [14]. - Market Analysis: Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory. Buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong first and then weak [1][16]. Live Pigs - Price Data: Live pigs main contract Lh2511 is 13840 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. Domestic live pig spot price is stable at 13820 yuan/ton [17][18]. - Inventory and Supply Data: National sample enterprises' live pig inventory is 3763.32 million tons, up 1.17% month - on - month; slaughter volume is 1091.68 million tons, down 3.01% month - on - month; fertile sows inventory is 4043 million tons, up 0.02% [17]. - Market Analysis: Smooth slaughter rhythm in the breeding end, pressure from previous second - fattening and accelerated August slaughter on the spot market. Medium - and long - term inventory remains high, but incremental space is shrinking. Capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts. Short - term short - selling is not recommended under the boost of purchase and storage sentiment, and long positions in far - month contracts or reverse arbitrage around strong contracts can be considered [1][19].
中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250825
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-25 05:32