PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on supply - side policies. However, in the long - term, as maintenance devices resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, supply pressure will increase. Considering the uncertainty of the cost side and policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but there is still significant long - term pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 was 7038, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 169,664, and the open interest increased by 12,407. The 01 - contract basis was - 158, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 21 [1]. - Spot Price: In the North China region, the spot price ranged from 6900 to 7030 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was from 6880 to 7020 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was from 6850 to 7080 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - PP futures fluctuated weakly, providing limited guidance to the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable. Traders adjusted their offers slightly based on inventory and costs. As the weekend approached, downstream factories were mostly on the sidelines, and overall market trading was average [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has rebounded. The market has rebounded due to unconfirmed supply - side policy information. In the future, as maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity is added, supply pressure will increase. There is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and policies aim to counter deflation and excessive competition. The short - term market is slightly stronger, but long - term pressure remains high [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].