Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points. The market is expected to continue its upward trend before the end of August, and there are event - driven opportunities in the second half of the year. The market presents a style where technology - growth and small - cap stocks are dominant [19][21]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, some chemical products like urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, while some metals like copper and aluminum continue to oscillate and adjust [14][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be officially launched on September 1st, which is expected to accelerate the expansion of consumer finance institutions into various consumption scenarios [8]. - The State Council has made arrangements for the next - stage consumer goods trade - in program, and the policy is expected to increase financial support and expand the scope of eligible products [8]. - China's computing power platform is accelerating construction, with the total computing power growing at an annual rate of about 30% in recent years, and the intelligent computing power scale is expected to grow by more than 40% in 2025 [8]. - In July 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the green electricity trading volume was 25.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. From January to July, the cumulative electricity market trading volume was 3.59 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [9]. - From January to July this year, the added - value of the five major industries in the machinery industry increased year - on - year, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 8.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 3.8%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 10.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 11.9%, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry by 7.1% [9]. - Ganfeng Lithium is deploying two key materials in the field of sulfide solid - state battery materials, and its lithium sulfide products have passed customer quality certification and are being supplied to multiple downstream customers [9]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are uncertain. The release of the US July PCE index this week may not hinder a September rate cut, but higher - than - expected inflation will dampen future rate - cut expectations. NVIDIA's earnings report this week may affect the US technology stocks [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season has a larger - than - expected decline in production, but the arrival of domestic processed sugar has pressured spot prices. The demand is divided. It is recommended to short at high levels near the 5700 yuan pressure level, with support at 5650 yuan [11]. - Corn: New grain listing and imports suppress the market, and feed demand is under pressure, but deep - processing profits may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, with strong support at 2150 yuan [11]. - Pigs: The spot price is stable with a slight increase due to the improvement in demand as the weather cools, but the futures market is bearish [11]. - Eggs: The inventory of laying hens is high, and the supply of small - sized eggs increases. The spot market is weak, while the futures market shows a reverse basis. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct inter - month arbitrage [11]. - Cotton: The international cotton market lacks upward momentum, and the domestic new cotton is expected to increase in production, which will put pressure on the long - term market. The demand for cotton yarn has improved, and the market is in a range - bound state. Attention should be paid to the support around 13900 yuan [12]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea price has dropped significantly. The daily production fluctuates around 19 - 200,000 tons, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is weak, and the market may oscillate weakly in the short term. The UR2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 1700 - 1730 yuan [14]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The 2511 contract is expected to be strong, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended [14]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and the profit of coke enterprises has recovered after the seventh round of price increases. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the improvement of the domestic macro - environment, the price of coking coal and coke is expected to remain firm and oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper prices continue to oscillate due to mixed US economic data and policy uncertainties. Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level adjustments as the domestic aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate and await the demand performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" [18]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increases, the demand is relatively stable, and the spot price has limited upward potential. The 2601 contract is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply of bauxite [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The production and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil have different trends, and the inventory accumulation is within expectations. With the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and the approaching peak season, the steel price is expected to oscillate strongly next week [18]. - Ferroalloys: The production growth of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has slowed down, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, and high - level hedging and speculation should be cautious [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is affected by production cuts in Jiangxi and rising costs, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long with a light position, paying attention to the support at 80,000 yuan and the resistance at 85,000 yuan [19]. 2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On August 22nd, the stock index options showed a strong performance. The trading volume and open interest of options changed, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors can pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can take corresponding positions according to the rise and fall of the underlying index [19]. - Stock Index: The A - share market is expected to continue its upward trend before the end of August. The market presents a technology - growth and small - cap style. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of IF, IH, IM, and IC on dips [21].
中原期货晨会纪要-20250825
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:03