国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Powell signaled dovishness at the JH meeting [2][4] - Silver: Poised to reach previous highs [2][5] - Copper: Prices rose as the US dollar declined [2][10] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supported prices [2][16] - Tin: Trading within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation slowed [2][23] - Alumina: Prices edged up sideways [2][23] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - Nickel: Trading within a narrow range [2][26] - Stainless steel: Short - term trading at low levels [2][26] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex gold 2510 and London gold spot rose by 1.00% and 0.95% respectively. The trading volume of Comex gold 2510 increased by 59,697, and the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 [5]. - Macro and industry news: Powell signaled dovishness, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door to interest rate cuts. He also announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [5]. - Trend strength: Gold trend strength is 1 [8]. Silver - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex silver 2510 and London silver spot rose by 2.07% and 1.85% respectively. The trading volume of Comex silver 2510 increased by 10,840 [5]. - Trend strength: Silver trend strength is 1 [8]. Copper - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai copper main contract and LME copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.18% and 0.77% respectively. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,009 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons [10]. - Macro and industry news: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September. Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine and lowered its copper output target for this year [10][12]. - Trend strength: Copper trend strength is 0 [12]. Zinc - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose by 0.16% and 1.39% respectively. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 503 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons [13]. - News: Powell signaled dovishness and announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [14]. - Trend strength: Zinc trend strength is 0 [15]. Lead - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3M electronic disk rose by 0.21% and 1.12% respectively. The Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 476 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 6,550 tons [16]. - News: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September [16]. - Trend strength: Lead trend strength is 0 [16]. Tin - Fundamental data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 0.21%, while the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose by 1.11%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [19]. - Macro and industry news: Powell signaled dovishness. China's State Council executive meeting studied measures to release sports consumption potential. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to guide the construction of computing power facilities [20]. - Trend strength: Tin trend strength is 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental data: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME aluminum 3M rose. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons. The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract rose by 14 [23]. - Comprehensive news: A new Fed journalist said Powell signaled a cautious interest rate cut [25]. - Trend strength: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental data: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 20,539 [26]. - Macro and industry news: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage. There were environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27]. - Trend strength: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0 [31].