股指期货将震荡偏强,焦煤、燃料油、白银、铁矿石、玻璃期货将震荡偏强,黄金、螺纹钢、纯碱期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - Base Metal Futures: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - Energy Futures: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - Agricultural Product Futures: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - Base Metal Futures: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - Energy Futures: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - Agricultural Product Futures: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - Stock Index Futures: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - Base Metal Futures: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - Energy Futures: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - Agricultural Product Futures: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].