沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper product enterprises in August. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the transition from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the initial decline in the global electrolytic copper inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the active contract on dips and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: The closing price on August 22, 2025, was 78,690, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 37,910 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,132 lots. The inventory was 24,148 tons, down 1,009 tons [2]. - SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price: It was 78,830 on August 22, 2025, up 30 from the previous day [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis: The basis was 260 on August 22, 2025, up 120 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed different trends [2]. - LME 3 - month Copper Futures: The closing price on August 21, 2025, was 9,724.5, up 4 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 155,975 tons, down 375 tons [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active contract on August 22, 2025, was 4.433, up 0.03 from the previous day. The total inventory was 271,482 tons [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Global Supply - demand: In June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 86,000 tons. From January to June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with 395,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. The global refined copper production from January to June 2025 was 1.4212 billion tons, and the consumption was 1.396 billion tons [2]. - Domestic Downstream Industry: The processing fee of fine copper rods for East China power and enameled wires increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of different copper product industries in China showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the capacity utilization rate of fine copper rods increased, while that of copper wire and cable decreased [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategy Investors are suggested to try to go long on the active contract on dips. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].