镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250825

1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250825: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Changes Rapidly and Fluctuates Greatly [1] 2. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases ranging from 220 to 240 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume of Shanghai nickel active contracts was 111,254 hands (+20,539), and the open interest was 111,421 hands (+9,036) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel decreased by 36 tons [2]. - The price differences between different - term Shanghai nickel contracts and the basis between spot and futures contracts showed various changes [2]. LME Nickel - The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 14,915.00 US dollars (-35.00), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,100.00 US dollars (+171.00), and the on - site closing price was 15,100.00 US dollars (+171.00) [2]. - The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 7,266 hands (+4,276) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts decreased, and the trading volume of the active contract was 113,666 hands (+13,930), with an open interest of 144,460 hands (+5,650) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased by 16,715 tons [2]. - The price differences between different - term Shanghai stainless steel contracts and the basis between spot and futures contracts also changed [2]. Spot Market - The prices of nickel ore, nickel beans, electrolytic nickel, and other nickel - related products showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing [2]. - The prices of stainless steel products such as 304 - series and 316 - series also had various changes, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged [2]. Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 776.00 (in ten thousand wet tons), an increase of 44.00 compared to the previous week [2]. - SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained unchanged, and SMM pure nickel social inventory decreased by 1,019.00 tons [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory increased by 5,700.00 tons, with different changes in 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series inventories [2]. 3. Core Views Nickel - On August 22, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the LME nickel rose 0.31%. The spot - market transaction was okay, and the basis premium narrowed [2]. - On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, the loss of ferronickel plants narrowed, domestic ferronickel production decreased in August while Indonesian production increased, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased in August with a shrinking export profit [2]. - On the demand side, ternary - material production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. - In summary, the pure - nickel fundamentals were loose, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were volatile, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. Stainless Steel - On August 22, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated downward, and the spot - market transaction was average, with the basis premium narrowing [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory was 62,600 tons (+8,500) last week [2]. - On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in August [2]. - On the demand side, terminal demand was weak [2]. - On the cost side, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat [2]. - In summary, the current macro - sentiment influenced the market greatly. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals, and there was cost support. Prices were expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. 4. Investment Strategy - For nickel, due to the loose fundamentals and volatile Fed interest - rate cut expectations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For stainless steel, considering the influence of macro - sentiment, loose fundamentals, and cost support, it is also recommended to wait and see [2].