商品期货早班车-20250825

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Core Viewpoints - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, it is advisable to temporarily exit and observe [2]. - For basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin, due to Powell's dovish remarks and other factors, there are expectations of currency easing and fiscal expansion, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with suggestions of unilateral waiting and observation [5][6]. - In the agricultural product market, different products have different trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals, such as short - term strength in US soybeans and waiting and seeing for some products [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, some products are expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, while in the long - term, as new devices are put into production, the supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose, and corresponding short - selling strategies are recommended [9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold: Market rebounded on Friday due to Powell's speech. Domestic gold ETF had a small outflow, and COMEX and London gold inventories had different changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [2]. - Silver: Followed gold's sharp rise, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to temporarily exit and observe [2]. Basic Metals - Copper: Price was volatile and slightly stronger on Friday. Powell's dovish remarks led to a decline in the US dollar index. Supply was tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - Aluminum: Electrolytic aluminum's price was slightly up, with an increase in operating capacity and a rise in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - Alumina: Price was slightly down. Supply capacity was stable, and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [3]. - Industrial Silicon: Price was up. Supply had new furnaces opened, and demand had different performances in different sectors. It is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Lithium: Price was down. Supply decreased, and demand showed a peak season pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and then buy on dips or buy call options after volatility declines [4]. - Polysilicon: Output was expected to increase in August, and inventory decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate between 45000 - 53000, and one can try to buy on dips [4]. - Tin: Price was volatile and stronger. Powell's remarks and supply - demand factors led to this. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - Rebar Steel: Price was volatile and slightly stronger. Building material supply - demand was neutral and weak, while plate demand was stable. It is recommended for unilateral waiting and observation [5][6]. - Iron Ore: Price was volatile and slightly stronger. Supply - demand was neutral and strong, with marginal weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: Price was up. Supply - demand was generally loose but improving. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were driven up by soybean oil. Supply was expected to increase annually, and demand had differences. Domestic soybeans followed the international cost side and were volatile and slightly stronger [7]. - Corn: Futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot price fell. Wheat substitution and other factors affected it, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Cotton: US cotton price was volatile and slightly stronger. International and domestic fundamentals improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Palm Oil: Price was up. Supply was in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. It is recommended to be bullish on oils, but the trading difficulty increases [8]. - Eggs: Futures price rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Pigs: Futures price was weak, and the spot price rose. Supply was sufficient, and consumption was recovering. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: Price was slightly up. Supply was increasing domestically and expected to decrease in imports. Demand was improving. It is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts [9][10]. - PVC: Price was up. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was average. Inventory was accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Rubber: Price was volatile. Supply and demand fundamentals were generally strong. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [10]. - Glass: Price was up. Supply was expected to enter the seasonal destocking period. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PP: Price was slightly up. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It is expected to be short - term volatile, and in the long - term, short - selling strategies are recommended [10]. - Crude Oil: Price was up due to multiple factors. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand had support. It is recommended to short at around 520 yuan/barrel [10][11]. - Styrene: Price rebounded slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to improve in the peak season. It is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, and long - term short - selling strategies are recommended [11]. - Soda Ash: Price was up. Supply was in the high - production season, and demand improved seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Caustic Soda: Price was up. Supply - demand was healthy, and it is recommended to go long [11].