长江期货市场交易指引-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass's 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper suggests range trading or waiting; aluminum recommends buying on dips; nickel suggests waiting or short - selling on rallies; tin and silver suggest range trading; gold recommends buying on dips after price corrections [1][11][14][17][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash's 09 contract suggests holding short positions; caustic soda is expected to oscillate strongly; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely; [1][20][22][23][25][28][29] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs suggest short - selling on rallies; corn suggests range trading; soybean meal suggests limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate strongly [1][38][40][41][42][44] Core Views - In the short term, the index futures market has strong upward momentum due to abundant liquidity, increased investor enthusiasm, and potential policy support, but may experience phased adjustments. The bond market shows signs of self - repair, but the downward space of yields should be rationally viewed [6] - The black building materials market is generally in a state of oscillation. The coal market has price adjustments and inventory accumulation, and the supply - demand relationship of rebar and glass is complex, with high inventory in glass suppressing prices [8][9] - Non - ferrous metals are mostly in a high - level oscillation state. Factors such as global central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes affect prices. Some varieties have potential upward space in the future [11][12][14] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most varieties are in an oscillation state, and some varieties have supply - demand imbalances [20][21][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors, with cotton and cotton yarn showing strong oscillation trends [34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather. Pigs and eggs face supply pressure, while oils are supported by multiple factors and show strong oscillation trends [38][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Short - term upward space exists, but phased adjustments may occur. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [6] - Treasury Bonds: Maintain a wait - and - see stance. The bond market shows self - repair, but rationally view the downward space of yields [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Oscillate. Coal prices in main producing areas have adjustments, and the sales of some coal types are average [8] - Rebar: Oscillate. Supply - demand relationship is complex, and the price is near the cost of electric arc furnaces [8] - Glass: The 09 contract is considered from a short - selling perspective. High inventory suppresses prices, and the traditional peak season has limited impact on cold - repair expectations [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. Global central bank policies and supply - demand relationships affect prices, and there is potential upward space in the future [11][12] - Aluminum: Buy on dips. The supply - demand relationship is in a state of transition, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up [14] - Nickel: Wait or short - sell on rallies. The supply is in an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term [17] - Tin: Range trading. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is in the off - season [17] - Silver and Gold: Oscillate. Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and market expectations support prices, buy on dips after price corrections [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillate weakly. High inventory and uncertain export sustainability, pay attention to policies and cost disturbances [20][21] - Soda Ash: Hold short positions in the 09 contract. High inventory and large arbitrage volume, with potential for further decline [33] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate strongly. Supply - demand relationship is favorable, and pay attention to downstream stocking rhythm [23] - Styrene: Oscillate. Fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm [25] - Rubber: Oscillate. Typhoon weather affects supply, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [26] - Urea: Range trading. Supply increases, demand is relatively scattered, and pay attention to downstream purchasing willingness [29] - Methanol: Range trading. Supply decreases slightly, downstream demand is weak, and port inventory accumulates [29] - Polyolefins: Oscillate widely. Cost is uncertain, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition [30] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate strongly. Global supply - demand forecasts and seasonal factors are favorable [34] - Apples: Range trading. Low inventory and growth factors support prices [35] - Jujubes: Range trading. Pay attention to the impact of weather on fruit quality [36] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - sell on rallies. Supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39][40] - Eggs: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is relatively sufficient, and pay attention to elimination and demand [40][41] - Corn: Range trading. New crop supply pressure and cost decline, pay attention to policies and substitutes [41] - Soybean Meal: Limited upside. Domestic supply is abundant in the short term, and prices may strengthen in the medium - long term [42][43] - Oils: Oscillate strongly. Supported by multiple factors, suggest a long - buying strategy on dips [44][51][52]