国富期货：20上海

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as currency exchange rates and central bank policies [1][2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and various currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given for different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information - Weather Conditions - US soybean - producing states are expected to have mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 27th to 31st. The Midwest had rain and temperature drops over the weekend, and the 6 - 10 - day outlook shows a mix of dry and rainy conditions with lower - than - normal temperatures. Brazil's 9 - month rainfall pattern is weak, and the region will become warmer [3][5][6]. - International Supply and Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.19%. CBOT futures contracts had changes in long and short positions. Pro Farmer predicts high yields for US corn and soybeans. Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production and planting area are also expected to rise. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 12.9% [9][11]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 22nd, the total trading volume of domestic soybean oil and palm oil increased by 3% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit increased, while the profit from purchasing piglets remained in the red. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly [13][14]. Macro - economic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 91.1%. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for a September rate cut. Canada decided to cancel some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [16]. - Domestic News - On August 22nd, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The central bank conducted 3612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1232 billion yuan on that day and 13652 billion yuan for the week. On August 25th, the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. From January to July 2025, the country absorbed 4673.4 billion yuan of foreign investment [18][19]. Fund Flows - On August 22nd, the futures market had a net inflow of 144.8 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 16.11 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net inflow of 160.91 billion yuan. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures contracts [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given report for this section.