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美生柴豁免量不及预期,棕榈油或震荡偏强
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:28
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 53 to close at 4,531 ringgit/ton, up 1.18%; palm oil 01 contract rose 132 to close at 9,592 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; soybean oil 01 contract fell 76 to close at 8,458 yuan/ton, down 0.89%; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 133 to close at 9,890 yuan/ton, up 1.36%; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 1.98 to close at 55.2 cents/pound, up 3.72%; ICE canola active contract rose 4.5 to close at 665 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.68% [4][7] - The domestic oil sector has entered a shock adjustment phase. High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production has shown a moderate growth trend, with overall supply pressure not significant; Malaysian palm oil export demand is relatively strong; Indonesia's inventory continued to decline in June, reaching a low level in the same period. The CBOT US soybean oil shock performance was relatively strong, mainly because the US Environmental Protection Agency's exemption volume for small refineries' biofuels was lower than expected [4][7] - Macroscopically, Powell signaled a possible interest - rate cut in September, but the process is tortuous and his statement is cautious. The US dollar index closed down in shock. Attention should be paid to whether Russia and Ukraine can reach a peace agreement smoothly, and oil prices are running in a shock. In the producing areas, Malaysian palm oil production increased moderately in the first and middle of August, with low supply pressure. Due to the inventory - building demand for India's Diwali, export demand is good; Indonesia's end - of - June inventory continued to decline, providing support for prices. The US Environmental Protection Agency's biofuel exemption volume for small refineries was lower than market expectations, and US soybean oil rose significantly as a result. Overall, palm oil may run with a slight upward bias in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The table shows the trading data of various contracts on August 22 and August 15, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Production data: From August 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month. According to MPOA, Malaysian palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared with the same period last month [8] - Export data: According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the previous month; according to AmSpec, exports were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase; according to SGS, exports were estimated to be 667,278 tons, a 37.19% increase [8][9] - Indonesia's data: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. In June, palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a 35.4% month - on - month increase. June's crude palm oil production soared by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production in the first half of the year (including palm kernel oil) reached 27.89 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase [9] - US EPA data: The US EPA approved 63 full exemption applications and 77 partial exemption applications for small refineries' biofuel exemption requests, and rejected 28 requests. The exemption quota for small refineries is about 5.34 billion gallons of RINS [9] - Inventory data: As of the week of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons from the previous week and 243,500 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 481,800 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7562 million tons, a decrease of 913,600 tons from the previous week and 45,200 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 222,200 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction data: As of the week of August 22, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 51,440 tons, compared with 27,540 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,113 tons, compared with 690 tons in the previous week [10] 3.3 Industry News - MPOC predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, driven by biodiesel demand, tight soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth [12] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities says that the direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be limited, mainly due to the uniqueness and non - substitutability of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified products. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual total exports. The government will continue to provide assistance through various measures [12][13] - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil annual production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 to meet the increasing demand and has launched a plantation revitalization plan [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and domestic oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [15]