不锈钢、沪镍周报：跌破1.3万关口后市如何进行-20250825

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - For stainless steel, short - term factors include price increases by Indonesian and Chinese steel mills, a flat term structure, and stable raw material prices and production schedules, with a support level at 12,500 - 12,900 yuan. The future market change depends on the transfer of the main position to the 2601 contract [1]. - For沪镍, in the short - term, there is doubt about the September interest - rate cut and the recent decline with increased positions. In the long - term, it focuses on whether the anti - involution market can improve the fundamentals. The support level is 118,000 - 120,000 yuan [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - Market Trend: The market is strengthening, and the discount range is expanding [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The inventory of refined nickel has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts are decreasing [9][10][20]. - Production Profit: The overall production profit has recovered, and some steel - mill processes still have profits [12]. - Production and Export: Although the production in July decreased, it remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong [16]. 2. Ferronickel - Price: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the high - nickel ferronickel market price is 920 - 935 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan from last week [27]. - Production Profit: Overseas imported ferronickel remains at a high level. Domestic ferronickel steel mills are under pressure from upstream and downstream, with full - scale losses in immediate profits. The profit of Indonesian ferronickel has also decreased. From January to July 2025, China's total ferronickel imports were 6.393 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.244 million tons or 24.2% [30]. 3. Nickel Intermediate Products - Price: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost of nickel ore has weakened. The high - nickel ferronickel market price has increased [27]. - Production Profit: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide and nickel beans has increased, and the loss of immediate profit has intensified [38]. - Production: The production of nickel sulfate, Indonesian MHP, and high - ice nickel is presented in the report. - Import Volume: The import volumes of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, high - ice nickel, and nickel matte are shown in the report. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Global Stainless - Steel Production: The report provides data on China's and Indonesia's stainless - steel production, capacity, import, export, and apparent consumption from 2018 to 2024, as well as global stainless - steel production [50]. - China's Primary Nickel Supply: Data on China's primary nickel supply, including pure nickel production, net import, ferronickel production, net import, nickel - sulfate production, net import, and nickel - intermediate product net import, are given [50].