美联储系列二十五：美联储的一次转鸽，提振短期风险偏好

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed has shifted to a dovish stance. In the short term, it has signaled a clear intention to cut interest rates in September. Powell believes that under restrictive policies, the balance of risks has been broken, and the risk of a downward trend in the labor market has increased. The inflation increase caused by tariffs is one - time, greatly increasing the possibility of a September interest rate cut. In the long term, the Fed's monetary policy emphasizes employment more, and the framework has returned to before 2020 [1]. - The macro - strategy is to increase risk appetite in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risks before the Fed's balance - sheet policy changes. Different asset strategies are proposed for dollars, US Treasuries, Chinese bonds, and commodities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Dovish Shift - The Fed's short - term signal for a September rate cut is due to the labor market's downward risk and the one - time nature of tariff - induced inflation. In the long term, the new monetary policy framework has removed descriptions of the zero - lower bound and average inflation target, and changed the description of employment from "shortfall" to "deviation", emphasizing the importance of the labor market [1]. Macro - strategy - Dollars: Short - term risk appetite in the market has increased. Short - term volatility long positions (+VIX) should be stopped and observed. Attention should be paid to the pressure on non - US assets from the increased risk appetite for US dollar assets, and continue to short the euro against the US dollar on rallies (-EUR) [2]. - US Treasuries: Maintain the flexibility of US dollar assets. It is expected that the yield curve will steepen as risk appetite increases (-2s10s). In terms of trends, pay attention to the impact of August non - farm payrolls on the Fed's September rate - cut pricing (+2s) [2]. - Chinese Bonds: Hold strategic steepening positions (+2s10s). Temporarily pay attention to the short - term pressure on non - US curve structures after the implementation of the Fed's new monetary policy framework. Keep the judgment of being bearish on T and TL (due to fiscal expansion) but not short - selling (due to short - term risk uncertainty), and pay attention to the opportunities provided by the August US non - farm payroll report [2]. - Commodities: Against the backdrop of the Fed's improved liquidity expectations, the expected weakening of total demand due to employment risks and the expected weakening of total supply due to anti - involution policies. Pay attention to the strengthening of the differentiation between domestic and foreign commodities in the short term under the improved risk - appetite state. Increase domestic - demand industrial products such as black and chemical products, and reduce external - demand industrial products such as energy and copper. In the long run, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of external - demand industrial commodities after adjustments [2]. Market Data and Trends - As of August 23, the market's pricing of the probability of a Fed rate cut within the year remained at 83.9%, and there was no significant increase in August. The market may be waiting for further signals from the early - September non - farm payroll report. The probability of the Fed continuing to cut rates during Powell's tenure in the first half of 2026 was 58.3%, slightly higher than 50% [6][8]. - The global major central banks have been in a rate - cut state in the past three months. The relatively loose financial conditions have led to the expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy, driving the improvement of market risk appetite, and the pressure on the relatively high - level US stocks may be postponed in the short term [14][18][19]. Strategy Tracking - The table shows the tracking of the Fed's trading macro - strategies from July 25 to August 25, including strategies for dollars, US Treasuries, and Chinese bonds, such as holding, short - selling, and stop - loss operations [22]. Labor Market - The growth rate of the US labor market stock is continuing to slow down, and the incremental data from the private - sector survey of the labor market is also facing downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the September non - farm payroll report [23][24][21].