豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250825
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:33
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic high - operating rate and high crushing volume, combined with factors such as restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses and pre - festival stocking demand, along with international factors like high yield expectations and planting area adjustments of US soybeans, lead to this trend. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. - For soybean oil futures, the mid - line trend is also in a wide - range oscillation. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, a 1.12% increase from the previous week. Domestic high - operating rates and high crushing volume, restricted feed consumption due to pig - farming losses, pre - festival stocking demand, high yield expectations of US soybeans, and planting area adjustments all affect the price. If the fourth - quarter ship purchases slow down, the center of the soybean meal futures price may gradually rise [7]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue the oscillating and slightly bullish trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250. This week, the overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is still sideways, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10][11]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 69.7, but the funds are flowing out significantly with a fund energy of - 68.5. The multi - empty divergence is 96.4, indicating a high risk of market reversal [15]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [19][21][24] Soybean Oil Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The mid - line trend of the soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 33rd week, the actual production of 125 oil mills was 444,400 tons, a 30,700 - ton increase from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.1427 million tons, a 5000 - ton increase from the previous week. High domestic oil - mill operating rates increase production, but weak terminal demand and the upcoming traditional consumption season in the fourth quarter, along with the expected rise in imported soybean costs, contribute to this situation. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue to be bullish but should be aware of short - term oscillating corrections. This week, the overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel, with a relatively bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may be in a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term [33]. Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish with a multi - empty flow of 72.0, and the main funds are flowing out slightly with a fund energy of - 36.1. The multi - empty divergence is 92.3, indicating a high risk of market reversal [36]. Relevant Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The relevant data involves weekly production, inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, inventory, crushing volume, operating rate of soybeans, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][45][47]