国泰海通晨报-20250825

Macro - Powell's speech at the 2025 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference signals a clear dovish shift, indicating that the risk of employment decline outweighs the risk of inflation rise, potentially paving the way for a new round of preemptive interest rate cuts [1][3] - The revision of the U.S. monetary policy framework suggests a more adaptable and flexible approach to current employment and inflation conditions, with expectations of a rate cut in September, but at a slower pace due to inflation constraints, with a maximum of two cuts anticipated within the year [2][3] Strategy - The theme trading momentum continues to rise, with technology themes leading the market, highlighting structural differentiation and recovery in low-position themes during the earnings verification period [3][6] - Recommended sectors include domestic computing power, embodied intelligence, emerging consumption, and high-end equipment, reflecting the ongoing expansion of technology themes [6][9] Overseas Strategy - The recent AH premium has reached a six-year low, indicating ample liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, with the index weakness primarily attributed to structural drag from the internet sector [4][11] - Three key factors are expected to drive the Hong Kong stock market upward: breakthroughs in AI technology, potential foreign capital inflows due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, and the attractiveness of scarce assets in the current macroeconomic environment [4][13] Industry Reports - The media sector index has risen by 5.17%, outperforming major indices, with recommendations for companies in vertical segments expected to maintain high growth [15][16] - DeepSeek's release of the V3.1 model enhances its capabilities, indicating significant advancements in AI technology, which is expected to drive future business growth [17][18] - Kuaishou's Q2 revenue exceeded 2.5 billion, showcasing the rapid commercialization of AI applications and the company's strategic focus on AI as a growth engine [21][22]