全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Sideways with a downward bias [32] - US Dollar: Bearish [32] - US Stocks: Sideways with an upward bias [32] - A-Shares: Sideways [32] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways with a downward bias [32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is centered around interest rate cut trading. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium signals a possible September rate cut, but the medium - term rate cut space is limited due to the resilience of the US economy and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. Although the macro - fundamentals have limited recovery, the stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and risk appetite is expected to remain high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The market speculated on interest rate cut trading this week. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized the increasing downside risks in the employment market and the short - term nature of tariff - induced inflation, signaling a September rate cut. However, the medium - term rate cut space is restricted by the US economic resilience and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. The stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and overseas liquidity easing signals are expected to support domestic risk appetite [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets rose this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index fell 2.3% [9][10]. - Most countries in the MSCI Global Index recorded gains. The expectation of interest rate cuts boosted global market risk appetite, with developed markets > global > frontier > emerging markets [10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US Dollar Index continued to decline, depreciating 0.12% to 97.7. Most currencies appreciated slightly against the US dollar. The RMB exchange - rate index remained unchanged, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated, and the off - shore RMB against the US dollar appreciated 0.25% [12][14]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major countries fluctuated, with emerging markets seeing larger increases. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield fell 7bp to 4.26%, the Japanese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.62%, and the German government bond yield fell 6bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.78%, the Brazilian government bond yield rose 27bp, the Indian government bond yield rose 15bp, and the Vietnamese government bond yield rose 11bp [19][23]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market showed marginal improvement this week, with the spot index performing weakly. Crude oil rose 1% to $63.8 per barrel. The metal and precious - metal sectors were boosted by the expectation of interest rate cuts, with LME copper rising 0.37%, LME aluminum rising 0.73%, COMEX gold rising 1%, and silver rising 2.26%. The agricultural - product sector was strong, with soybeans and corn rising 1.5%. The domestic commodity market weakened, with rebar falling 2.2% and iron ore falling 0.8% [29]. 3.3 Asset Class Weekly Outlook 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market has priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. In the short term, gold prices will continue to trade in a range and lack the momentum to break through [33]. - The real interest rate has fallen to 1.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has stopped falling and rebounded. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening, which suppresses gold prices. The US Dollar Index fell, the RMB rose, and Shanghai gold continued to trade at a discount [41]. - Comex gold futures' speculative net - long positions decreased slightly, and SPDR Gold ETF holdings flowed out slightly. Shanghai gold's positions declined, and its inventory increased. Silver rose slightly, outperforming gold, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88 [46]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was extremely dovish, shifting the Fed's policy focus to unemployment. The market expects the Fed to accelerate rate cuts in September, and the US Dollar Index is expected to trend downward [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - At the beginning of the week, the technology sector corrected due to the expected hawkish stance of Powell. However, after his dovish speech on Friday, the market risk appetite recovered. The interest rate cut expectation is expected to support the US stock market to trade sideways with an upward bias in the near term. Attention should be paid to NVIDIA's earnings report and July PCE data next week [52]. - In terms of sectors, energy, real estate, finance, and materials rose more than 2%. Only the information technology and communication sectors fell. The Q2 earnings of US stocks were strong, with 81% of companies exceeding expectations, and the profit growth rate reached 11.6%. Institutional investors' positions increased, and the volatility index remained at a low level [63]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, 30 out of 30 A - share industries in the CITIC primary - industry classification rose, with the communication industry leading the gain (+10.47%) and the real - estate industry lagging (+0.98%). The Shanghai Composite Index broke through historical highs, and the trading volume reached an average of 2.5 trillion yuan per day. The "bull - market expectation" has gained consensus, and the stock market is less sensitive to fundamental pressures in the short term [64][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Next week, the bond market is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, as it is in a data and policy vacuum, and the bond market's performance will be dominated by the money - market and equity - market conditions. The central bank is committed to maintaining market liquidity, but the money - market may tighten marginally during tax - payment and month - end periods. The expectation of interest rate cuts is more favorable for the stock market [77]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The GDPNow model's estimate of Q3 GDP growth has fallen to 2.26%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales has rebounded to 5.9%. The crude - oil price has rebounded slightly, and the market's inflation expectation has remained stable. The initial jobless claims reached 235,000, and the continued jobless claims fell to 1.972 million, indicating a weakening labor market [90][99]. - The bank's reserve balance remained at $3.3 trillion, the TGA account balance rebounded slightly to $526.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rebounded to $36.3 billion. The market liquidity remained stable. The volatility index fell to a low for the year, and the corporate bond spread remained low. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the market has priced in a rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year [106]. - In July, the US CPI rose slightly, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI rose significantly, with the core PPI rising 3.7% year - on - year. Service inflation has rebounded, indicating strong core - inflation stickiness [113]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remained weak, and the effectiveness of the policies proposed by the State Council to stabilize the real - estate market needs to be monitored [114]. - As of August 22, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.48%, 1.47%, 1.42%, and 1.46% respectively, with changes of - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.13 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight - trading proportion was 87.75%, slightly lower than the previous week [130]. - In July, the economic data generally weakened, especially domestic demand. The private - sector's self - repair ability was insufficient, and the policy focus was on structural adjustment. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6%, and the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and other indicators declined [131]. - In July, the financial data showed a divergence. The M1 and M2 growth rates exceeded market expectations, while the new - credit data was weak. The policy has started to support the demand side, but the effect may not be significant in the short term. The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September [135]. - In July, the PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, and the CPI was 0.0% year - on - year. The terminal demand remained weak, and the price increase of commodities due to the "anti - cut - throat competition" policy has not been transmitted to the downstream [150]. - In July, the export growth rate was 7.2%, and the import growth rate was 4.1%, both exceeding expectations. However, the sustainability of the export growth is questionable, and the import growth depends on the recovery of domestic demand [160].