鲍威尔讲话强化降息预期，金银强劲反弹

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Title: "Precious Metals Weekly Report" [1][8][23][31][36][38][40] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated, initially pressured by better - than - expected US economic data but strongly rebounding after Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which strengthened the market's expectation of a September rate cut [3][5] - Powell's speech indicated a possible policy adjustment due to changing risk balance, without a clear commitment to a rate cut, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment and inflation data. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September increased from 75% to 85% [3][5] - The significant increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week also raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][5] - Currently, precious metal prices are driven by the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut, with the decline of the US dollar index providing additional support. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [3][6] Group 4: Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.40 | - 2.40 | - 0.31 | 181769 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 771.63 | - 1.46 | - 0.19 | 21306 | 197546 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3417.20 | 35.50 | 1.05 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9192 | - 12 | - 0.13 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9182 | - 6 | - 0.07 | 298922 | 3280258 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.88 | 0.86 | 2.26 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices were initially pressured by US economic data but rebounded after Powell's speech, which strengthened the rate - cut expectation [3][5] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a split among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs. Most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6] - The market is expected to continue digesting the strengthened rate - cut expectation, and precious metal prices will be volatile and slightly upward [3][6] Group 6: Important Data Information - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the Composite PMI rose to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [10] - Eurozone August PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.5, the first time above the boom - bust line since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. Germany's Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, approaching the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. France's August Manufacturing PMI reached a 31 - month high of 49.9 [10] - US initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000 last week, the highest in three months, higher than the expected 225,000. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [10] - US existing - home sales in July increased by 2% to an annual rate of 4.01 million, higher than the expected 3.92 million. The median existing - home price rose 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest in two years [10] - Germany's Q2 GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, worse than the initial estimate of 0.1% contraction [11] - Japan's July core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, with energy prices falling 0.3% for the first time since March 2024 [11] Group 7: Related Data Charts - CFTC non - commercial positions data for gold and silver futures from July 29, 2025, to August 19, 2025, including non - commercial long, short, and net long positions and their weekly changes [13][15] - Multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long position changes, and relationships between precious metals and other factors such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] Group 8: This Week's Focus - Key data to watch: US July PCE, Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders; China's August official PMI, July industrial enterprise profit year - on - year [9] - Event to watch: Progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [9]