市场情绪回落，双焦期价以跌为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market sentiment declined, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures mainly fell. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both decreased significantly, breaking the support of the 20 - day moving average, showing a short - term bearish trend [1][3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1162 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 5.53%. The mainstream spot market quotes remained stable. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1678.5 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 2.95%. The mainstream spot market quotes were mainly stable [3]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. The daily output of clean coal was 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. Due to the continuous disturbances in coal mines, the inventory of raw coal in coking coal mines and clean coal in coal washing plants increased [3]. - Demand Side: After continuous price increases, the profits of coking enterprises continued to recover, and the operating rate increased slightly. However, the profit recovery of coking enterprises narrowed, and the willingness to accept high - priced coal continued to decline. Steel mills' blast furnace operating rates remained high, but the procurement of coking and steel enterprises was mainly on - demand. The proportion of auction failures and price - cut transactions increased [4]. - Overall: Last week, the supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand remained stable. The coking coal 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [4]. 3.2.2. Coke - Supply Side: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08%. The daily output was 654,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The profit per ton of 30 sample coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton. Due to environmental protection requirements, the supply of coke is expected to be restricted. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [6]. - Demand Side: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%. The daily output of hot metal was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly but remained good. Some steel mills in North China will limit production during the parade, which is expected to suppress the demand for coke [6]. - Overall: Last week, the supply and demand of coke remained stable. The coke 2601 contract fell significantly, and the short - term trend was bearish [6]. 3.3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal ratio fell significantly, with an average of 1.44. Currently, it is at a relatively high level in the same period in the past 5 years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [7]. 3.4. Inventory | Product | Location | Inventory (thousand tons) | Weekly Change (thousand tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 261.49 | 6 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 966.41 | - 10.47 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 812.31 | 6.51 | | | Total | 2040.21 | 2.04 | | Coke | Port | 214.12 | - 0.99 | | | All - sample independent coking plants | 64.37 | 1.86 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 609.59 | - 0.21 | | | Total | 888.08 | 0.66 | [8]