Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has started to gradually trade on the weak reality, and the steel and iron ore futures markets have continued to operate weakly. The short - term steel mill profitability has slightly contracted, and the steel output has continued to slightly decrease. Although the short - term apparent demand for steel has recovered, the inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the steel market and start to stabilize slightly [3][5][8][10] Summary by Commodity Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract continued to decline slightly under the drive of long - position main force position reduction. As of Friday, it closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan and a weekly decline of 2.16% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in various regions generally decreased slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average steel price decreased by 49 yuan to 3,335 yuan/ton, with different price adjustments in different regions [5] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 5.89%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.95%. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72% and a year - on - year increase of 22.48%. The steel weekly output decreased by 5.8 tons to 2.1465 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [5] Demand - This week, the building material trading volume continued to slightly decrease, while the apparent steel consumption started to recover. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.29 tons to 97,100 tons, and the steel apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [8] Inventory - This week, the inventory of five major steel products and steel inventory continued to accumulate. As of Friday, the total steel inventory increased by 198,500 tons to 6.0704 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [8] Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quote for steel in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of 161 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a week - on - week expansion of 29 yuan. It is expected that the steel basis will continue to expand [8] Comprehensive Judgment - With the seventh round of coke price increase implemented, the short - term steel mill profitability has slightly contracted, and the steel output has continued to slightly decrease. Although the short - term apparent demand has recovered, the inventory has continued to accumulate. After a week of rapid adjustment in the steel futures market, the short - term market pessimism has been released, and there is a technical rebound demand in the short - term market, with the upper pressure level focusing on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost in East China [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 - contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend. As of Friday, it closed at 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 0.77% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally decreased slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore concentrate started to decline steadily. The overall trading volume was average, with different price adjustments for different varieties in different ports [8] Supply - As of the 18th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.257 million tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 24.766 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 947,000 tons. Currently, the iron ore shipments and arrivals are at the average and medium - high levels of the same period respectively [10] Demand - Currently, the daily average port ore handling volume of 45 ports is 341,040 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,760 tons. The weekly average trading volume of port iron ore spot is 106,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 240,750 tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 297,840 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 680 tons [10] Inventory - As of the 22nd, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to slightly accumulate, reaching 138.452 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 259,300 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 90.6547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 708,600 tons [10] Basis - As of Friday, the optimal delivery products (PB powder and Newman powder) at Qingdao Port are priced at 810 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a week - on - week contraction of 7 yuan. It is expected that the iron ore basis will continue to expand [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the imported iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase according to the two - to - four - week lag. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output continues to slightly increase, while the steel mill daily consumption starts to slightly decline. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the steel market and start to stabilize slightly [10]
市场开始逐步交易弱现实，螺矿盘面延续偏弱运行
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-08-25 06:49