南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250824）：订单陆续启动，需求边际好转-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints MEG - MEG is expected to maintain an upward - biased and hard - to - fall trend in the short term. Although it is in a pattern of inventory accumulation, the low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply make it likely to rise. Operationally, it is recommended to go long on dips within the range. In the medium - to - long term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling out - of - the - money near - month call options [1][3]. PX - TA - The supply reduction of PX - TA has pushed up the PTA price. In the short term, the unexpected device events cannot change the long - term relatively oversupplied pattern. The processing fee of PTA is expected to be under long - term pressure. Operationally, the processing fee should be shorted on rallies, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread can be moderately shorted on rallies [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply: The total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Ethylene - based and coal - based loads have different changes. Next week, the total load is expected to continue to increase. The profits of each route of EG have been slightly repaired. The port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons [2]. - Demand: The polyester load has increased to 90% (+0.6%). Downstream demand has improved, with both domestic and foreign trade orders starting. The inventory of filament and staple fiber products has decreased. The profits of the polyester segment are under pressure, while the bottle - chip orders are good, and the load is expected to increase in September [2]. Key Data - Price: The price of MEG in East China has increased from 4458 yuan/ton to 4512 yuan/ton, and the US dollar price has increased from 524 dollars/ton to 529 dollars/ton [7]. - Profit: The profits of MEG from various sources, such as coal - based and external - ethylene, have increased [7]. - Inventory: The port inventory has decreased from 55.3 tons to 54.7 tons [7]. Maintenance Situation - Many ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [12]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - PX: The load has increased to 84.6% (+0.3%). The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the supply - demand balance in August and September has turned to a slight surplus. The profits of the PX segment have expanded [5]. - PTA: The load has decreased to 71.6% (-4.4%). The social inventory has decreased to 2.2 million tons (-70,000 tons). The processing fee has been repaired, but the market is still relatively loose [5]. Key Data - Price: The price of PX in the Chinese main port has increased from 828 dollars/ton to 853.7 dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China has increased from 4659 yuan/ton to 4865 yuan/ton [8]. - Profit: The PXN and PX - MX spreads have increased, and the domestic processing fee of PTA has increased [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PTA has decreased [8]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX, PTA devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [13][14]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - Supply: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 90% (+0.6%), and the loads of filament, staple fiber, and bottle - chip have all increased to varying degrees [9]. - Demand: Downstream demand has improved, with orders starting, and the inventory of products has decreased [6]. - Profit: The profits of most polyester products have been under pressure, but the processing fees of bottle - chips have been repaired [9]. Key Data - Price: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and other products have increased to varying degrees [9]. - Inventory: The inventory days of POY, FDY, DTY, and staple fiber have decreased [9]. Production Plan - The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 4.85 million tons, including filament, bottle - chip, slice, and film products [18].