长江期货棉纺产业周报：震荡偏强-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the bullish USDA report, the futures market will oscillate and rebound. Next week, the CF2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of [14100 - 14500]. In the medium - term, as the 09 - contract futures nears its end, the probability of a US interest rate cut in September is over 90%. With the approaching of the new cotton season and the "Golden September and Silver October" period, futures prices may be supported or rebound. In the long - term, the new cotton prices are expected to oscillate or rebound initially, then decline after October, and show a bullish bias next year [5]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to strengthen recently as it approaches the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", along with the expectation of a moderate increase in cotton prices [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: Futures market to oscillate and rebound due to Fed rate - cut expectation and USDA report. Next week, CF2601 to trade in [14100 - 14500] [5]. - Medium - term: 09 - contract futures nearing end, high probability of US rate cut in September. New cotton season and "Golden September and Silver October" may support prices [5]. - Long - term: New cotton prices to oscillate or rebound initially, decline after October, and be bullish next year. Support at 13600 - 13700, resistance at 14300 - 14600 [5]. 02. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - The cotton yarn market shows some improvement with increased downstream procurement. As it approaches the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and with the expected rise in cotton prices, prices are likely to strengthen [7]. 03. Market Review - Cotton market: Spot prices rose slightly. The low basis of the CF09 contract was digested, and the spot shifted to the CF01 contract. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [11]. - Cotton yarn market: After the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the cotton yarn market improved slightly but overall performance was still average. High - price acceptance was poor [11]. 04. International Macroeconomics - Multiple economic indicators of the US and the Eurozone were released, including unemployment rates, trade balances, inflation rates, etc. [13] 05. Domestic Macroeconomics - Various domestic economic indicators were announced, such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, and retail sales [15]. 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume were all adjusted down, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, production was expected to decrease, consumption to increase, and exports to decrease, with the ending inventory declining again [17]. 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply was adjusted down, consumption was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, total supply was adjusted down, production increased slightly, and the ending inventory decreased [19][20]. 08. US Cotton Exports - As of August 14, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 75.5 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a shipment rate of 8.49%. China had signed 0.3 tons [28]. 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 218.98 tons, a 22.62% decrease from the previous month. As of August 15, the commercial inventory was 182.02 tons, a 16.88% decrease from the end of July [31]. 10. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in July - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 5 tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month but a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. Cotton yarn imports were 11 tons, a 16.4% decrease year - on - year [34]. 11. Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in July - In July, the production of pure cotton yarn decreased to 43.4 tons, a 3.2% decrease from the previous month. Consumption was 50.3 tons, a 0.8% decrease from the previous month [38]. 12. US Cotton Growth - As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton was 97%, the boll - setting rate was 73%, and the flocculation rate was 13%. The growth progress was slightly slow, but the good - quality rate was 55%, higher than in previous years [39]. 13. US Cotton Weather - In the week ending August 16, 2025, the average temperature in the US cotton - growing areas was 84.14°F, and the average rainfall was 0.88 inches. The drought situation was better than last year [45]. 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of August 18, 2025, the average flocculation rate of Xinjiang cotton was 8.3%. Some cotton fields were affected by high - temperature and rainfall, and the management of cotton fields was approaching the end [47]. 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In June, the inventory of the textile industry and related sub - sectors showed different trends in month - on - month and year - on - year changes [48]. 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 961 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase [53]. 17. External Demand - Exports - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.66 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the total exports were 1707.41 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [56]. 18. US Clothing Retail Sales in June - In June 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were 263.42 billion US dollars, a 3.88% year - on - year increase [59]. 19. US Cotton Product Imports in June - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 13.57 billion square meters, a 4.47% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 85.21 billion square meters, a 4.68% year - on - year increase [62]. 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 14, 2024/25 season, the total number of warehouse receipts was 8195, a decrease of 84 from the previous week [64]. 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of August 12, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 2102 contracts compared to the previous week [68]. 22. Textile Mill Load - As of August 15, the comprehensive yarn load was 49.33, a 0.01 increase from the previous week. The pure cotton yarn mill load index was 63.3, a 0.04 decrease from the previous week [71]. 23. Weaving Mill Load - The all - cotton grey fabric load index was 45.08, a 0.70 increase from the previous week. The yarn load remained low, but the grey fabric load was rebounding [74]. 24. Industrial Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory was 30.9 days, a 0.68 - day decrease from the previous week. Yarn inventory was 30.46 days, a 0.38 - day decrease. All - cotton grey fabric inventory was 36.62 days, a 0.86 - day decrease [78]. 25. Industrial Chain Profit - The cotton yarn market improved slightly, but the profit change was not significant. Inland C32S spinning enterprises still had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang enterprises had a small profit [82]. 26. Basis - This week, the basis weakened significantly with the futures price rebound. The current inland basis is 1033 yuan/ton, a 505 - yuan/ton weakening this week [85]. 27. Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - This year, the domestic cotton market is strong while the foreign market is weak. However, after October, the situation may change [90]. 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 9 - 11 spread was - 215 yuan/ton, continuing to weaken. The 11 - 1 spread weakened to - 80 yuan/ton [94]