碳酸锂周报：总库存去化，碳酸锂低多对待-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of strong supply and demand, with the total inventory decreasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating good performance on the demand side. After the main contract stabilizes near the 20 - day moving average, it can still be bought at low prices [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment, sending a hawkish signal. Many were worried about the fragility of the US Treasury market. The preliminary US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, a three - year high, but the labor market was cooling more obviously. Eurozone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the manufacturing PMI rose above 50 [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production increased slightly, with the weekly production remaining above 20,000 tons. There were many rumors about the resumption of production in the supply side this week, and the production data should be closely tracked for verification. In July 2025, the total import of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%. The import from Australia was 427,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.24%, accounting for 56.92% of the monthly import volume [3] - As of August 22, the lithium carbonate production was 20,438 tons, a week - on - week increase of 345 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The impact of the shutdown of large factories in Jiangxi has not been realized yet. Yinli announced the end of maintenance and resumed production this week. There is an expectation of an increase in the import volume of Australian spodumene, and Zangge may resume production in September [9] - As of August 22, the lithium hydroxide production was 4,730 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 32.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. This week, the lithium hydroxide production remained at a low level. On the one hand, the price of spodumene was firm, and external procurement enterprises were forced to reduce production due to cost inversion. On the other hand, some enterprises were still under maintenance, and the market - circulating spot was tight [11] Demand Side - According to data released by the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 to 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale of new - energy vehicles by Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in August last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy vehicles by Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 56.4%. The cumulative wholesale this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [3] - As of August 22, the lithium iron phosphate production was 70,611 tons, a week - on - week increase of 354 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 62.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. As the traditional peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the demand on the power side has increased significantly, and the demand for energy storage has remained high driven by overseas tariff adjustments and European and American market policies. The lithium iron phosphate industry has maintained high - load production, and leading enterprises have achieved full production and sales [14] - For ternary materials, battery factories have started to stock up, and new orders are concentrated in leading enterprises [16] Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the African SC 5% was quoted at $680 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $40 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $960 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $25 per ton; the market price of lepidolite was 2,330 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan per ton. In July, the total import volume of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%, of which the import from Australia was 427,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.24% [47] - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,417 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,079 yuan, and the lithium carbonate industry profit was 13,954 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,498 yuan [4] - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,167 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,006 yuan, and the lithium hydroxide industry profit was 8,089 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,453 yuan [51] - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 35,825 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 161 yuan per ton. The lithium iron phosphate industry had a loss of 822 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan per ton [53] Total Inventory - As of August 21, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 141,543 tons, a decrease of 713 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,847 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, the upstream smelters increased the inventory reduction efforts, and the downstream material factories actively replenished their stocks. The warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down significantly [5][32] - As of August 22, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 44,734 tons, an increase of 969 tons from last week. This week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate finished products increased significantly. The industry is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the existing finished product inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises is maintained at 7 - 10 days. The raw material price fluctuates greatly, the market customer - supply ratio decreases, and the manufacturers' willingness to purchase raw materials increases [35] Market Price - As of August 22, LC2511 closed at 78,960 yuan per ton, a 9% decrease from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan per ton, a 4.76% decrease from last week. The basis changed from discount to premium. The position of the main contract was 360,000. This week, the main contract first rose and then fell. It rose sharply to the 90,000 - yuan mark on Monday. Due to the excessive short - term increase, there was a need for technical adjustment. Under the influence of negative news and market sentiment, it dropped significantly below 80,000 yuan, and the fluctuation range widened [7] - The report also provided price information for various lithium - related products, including the price changes of spodumene, lepidolite, lithium metal, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, ternary precursors, lithium iron phosphate, and other products from August 15 to August 22 [6]