Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips as Powell's dovish remarks have raised expectations of a Fed rate cut, domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and there are signs of marginal improvement in inventory [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai Aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is also recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly View - Fundamental Analysis: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 250,000 tons to 95.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.319 million tons. The downstream demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, with some sectors showing signs of recovery. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while that of aluminum rods decreased. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies is pressuring production [3]. - Strategy Suggestions: Suggest to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4]. 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, and prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Stricter safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as recent frequent rainfall, have restricted mining activities [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season has affected mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 83.5%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,233.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.4 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 3.423 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons week - on - week. Newly put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing, and individual enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, which will not affect medium - term production. Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region have received notices of production restrictions for the military parade, but most alumina enterprises have not [14]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.319 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of some remaining capacity in Guizhou, the commissioning of replacement capacity at Yunlv Yixin, and the gradual resumption of a 120,000 - ton technical renovation project at Baise Yinhai [23]. 08. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the week, while that of aluminum rods decreased [3]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 53% week - on - week. The four - ministry joint notice on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies has affected the industry, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving termination notices of tax refunds, resulting in regional production suspension and shipment suspension. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy is pressuring production [32]. 11 & 12. Downstream开工 - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5% to 60% week - on - week [45]. - For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. Industrial profiles have relatively stable orders in the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, while construction profiles still have weak demand [45]. - For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66% week - on - week. As the traditional peak season approaches, raw material stocking and customer提货 have strengthened, and some enterprises' orders have improved compared to July [45]. - For aluminum cables, the operating rate of domestic leading enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6% week - on - week. With the restart of the power grid construction cycle in September, enterprises are stocking up on raw materials and increasing production [49]. - For primary aluminum alloy, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 56.6% week - on - week. Downstream enterprises are making trial replenishments for the peak season, but orders are generally average, and the demand for aluminum water consumption has decreased [49].
铝产业链周报-20250825
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-25 07:12