南华尿素产业链数据周报20250824：近月承压-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently under pressure in the short term. In the near - term, it is in the off - season for agricultural demand, and industrial production load is decreasing. Affected by the September 3rd military parade, some compound fertilizer and board factories in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces have received requirements for production suspension and restriction after mid - August, and freight transportation in some areas will be significantly restricted. In the medium - term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The urea market is in a pattern with support at the bottom and suppression at the top, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises are under maintenance this period, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical. Some enterprises have resumed production, such as Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Jingyuan Coal Industry Group. The daily urea output next week will be around 200,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, China's urea production enterprises produced 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95% [4]. Demand - Domestic demand remains weak. The agricultural top - dressing demand in the northern region has basically ended. The compound fertilizer industry has a large sales pressure on finished products recently, with a low operating rate, limited demand for urea raw material procurement, and low acceptance of high - priced urea supplies [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong is 1660 (01 basis - 80), and in Henan is 1670 (01 basis - 70) [5]. Strategy View - In the short term, due to the off - season of agricultural demand and production suspension and restriction requirements, the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, exports will support the demand side. Factory backlog orders and inventory pressure increase, and spot quotes decline, but there may be a phased rebound with the opening of export channels. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [5].