PVC周报：强预期VS弱现实，止跌企稳-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The PVC market is in a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, but the market sentiment has improved compared to the first half of the year. The low point of 4746 in the year still has strong support, and the profit - loss ratio of short - selling decreases significantly when the price falls below 5000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the V2601 contract oscillated between 4951 and 5119 yuan/ton, with a 4 - week consecutive decline in the weekly line and an enlarged amplitude compared to last week. The contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, down 78 points or 1.5% from last week's close [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 5059 yuan/ton (down 78 week - on - week), and the main contract's open interest was 980,000 lots, which was higher than the same period in previous years [11]. - The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 279 yuan/ton, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 82,000 lots (up 0.2 week - on - week). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - The 9 - 1 month spread weakened. As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 141 yuan/ton (up 2 week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 222 yuan/ton (up 27 week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC declined more, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 460,000 tons (down 16,000 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%. From week 1 to 34, the cumulative production increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 78.33%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Demand - Real Estate: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of these four indicators were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively. The sales area has seen a continuous 4 - month decline. In July, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.85% year - on - year. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.93 million square meters [25][28]. - Domestic Demand: This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved for two consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of films declined for three consecutive weeks [31]. - Export: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PVC export volume was 2.29 million tons (an increase of 830,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57%. In July, the domestic PVC export volume was 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. However, on August 14, India announced new anti - dumping duties, which are expected to reduce China's export advantage and the export growth rate to India in the second half of the year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%), and in July, the export volume was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [34][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (down 21,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of destocking, a total of 100,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory was 510,000 tons (up 15,000 week - on - week), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 150,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory was 680,000 tons (up 41,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 280,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 223 yuan/ton (up 8 week - on - week) [44]. Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price is undervalued. Close short positions and try to go long on dips in the short - term. Focus on the V2601 contract in the range of [4950, 5200]. - Hedging: The futures market is in a contango structure. Industrial customers can sell on rallies for hedging [5].