碳酸锂日评：波动再放大持仓注意保护-20250825

Report Summary 1. Core View - On August 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market's purchasing willingness increased, and the basis premium widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand are strengthening, the fundamentals change little, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term, range - bound operations, and buy options for protection after sharp declines [2]. 2. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Prices: On August 22, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three contracts and others decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 3,560 to 3,820 yuan/ton [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 932,675 lots (+154,848), and the open interest of the active contract was 362,254 lots (-27,815) [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price and the active contract's closing price changed. For example, the basis increased by 2,500 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Raw Material Prices: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores decreased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 14 dollars/ton [2]. - Lithium Compound Prices: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds mostly decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/China - made) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 713 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2,847 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons [2]. 3. Industry News - A so - called "capacity clearance" document was confirmed, and a closed - door meeting of the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen [2]. - Dazhong Mining (001203) plans to have its Hunan lithium mine's first - phase 20,000 - ton mining, beneficiation, and smelting project completed and put into production in 2026. The Sichuan lithium mine will start producing and selling raw ore this year [2]. - Premier African Minerals completed the second - stage trial run of its main flotation plant at the Zulu project in Zimbabwe, achieving a lithium oxide grade of up to 6.2% [2].