油脂周报：美国SRE裁决出炉，油脂维持震荡偏强-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term palm oil: 7 - month Malaysia palm oil inventory accumulation was less than expected, and it is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in August. Indonesia's production increased significantly in June, but the inventory remained low, and the price was firm. The short - term market may experience a callback due to weakened sentiment, but the callback range is expected to be limited, maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy [4][27]. - Short - term soybean oil: The US SRE application ruling has limited impact on the demand for biofuels. August is the critical growth period for US soybean pod setting. Weather conditions in August need to be closely monitored. If the weather is unfavorable, there is a risk of yield decline. There are rumors of domestic soybean oil exports. Supported by factors such as US biodiesel, soybean oil has strong support at the bottom and is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [4][22][27]. - Short - term rapeseed oil: The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, with a supply - exceeding - demand pattern continuing. However, rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing slightly, and there is still support at the bottom [4][25][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Core Events & Market Review - Palm oil production and inventory: SPPOMA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 0.3% month - on - month, while MPOA estimates a 3% increase. Gapki data shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in June increased by 16% to 529 million tons, and inventory decreased to 253 million tons [4][8][12]. - US SRE application ruling: Among 175 SRE applications, 63 (36%) got full exemption, 77 (44%) got partial exemption, 28 (16%) were rejected, and 7 (4%) did not meet the exemption conditions. The total SRE exemption volume from 2016 - 2024 reached 5.34 billion RIN [13]. 3.2 International Market - Malaysia palm oil: It is estimated that the production in August will be around 1.88 million tons. The export in August was average, and the inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 - 2.3 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the later decline space may be limited [8]. - Indonesia palm oil: The production in June increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decrease. The annual production is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons year - on - year. The CPO tender price is oscillating strongly, and the inventory is expected to remain below 3 million tons in the next few months [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Domestic soybean oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 1.1427 million tons, with a slight increase. The import volume of soybeans in August and September is expected to be 10 million tons per month on average, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. However, with factors such as reduced soybean arrivals and export rumors, there may be a slight inventory reduction later. Supported by US biodiesel, it is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [22]. - Domestic palm oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 617,300 tons, with an increase of 2.92%. The import profit has improved, and the number of purchases has increased. The fundamentals are good, and it is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - Domestic rapeseed oil: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, showing a continuous marginal decline. The import profit has an expanded deficit, and there are rumors of contract cancellations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [25]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils may experience a callback, and it is advisable to buy on dips after the callback [29]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider doing a positive spread on P1 - 5 after the callback [29]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [29].