聚烯烃周报：旺季陆续启动，逢低试多-20250825

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - Market Performance: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - Position and Basis: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - Supply: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - Import: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - Demand: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - Inventory: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - Strategy: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - Market Performance: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - Position and Basis: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - Supply: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - Import: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - Demand: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - Inventory: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - Strategy: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - Market Performance: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - Price: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - Supply: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - Demand: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]