长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, under the low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans, a decrease in yield and improvement in exports may further tighten the ratio, with US soybean prices expected to run strongly around 1030 cents per bushel. In China, from September to October, arrivals are abundant, and prices are pressured by the uncertainty of state reserves release and US soybean purchases. However, due to cost support, significant price drops are unlikely. In the short - term, prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of US soybeans, but the increase may be less than that of US soybeans [6]. - For oils, the improvement in demand combined with the tightening supply provides upward momentum. Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The M2601 contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The basis price was 01 - 100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans rebounded to around 1060 cents per bushel, while the domestic soybean meal trend was inverted, and the market was pressured by state reserves release and US soybean purchases [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the first half of August, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas was less than in July. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained around 68%, and it is expected to decline. In China, arrivals from August to October are sufficient, but after October, supply may gradually decrease due to the slow pace of US soybean purchases. However, the possibility of state reserves release and US soybean purchases still exists [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the second half of the year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the planting cost of US soybeans decreased to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel, and it is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. The bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3060 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, soybean meal prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, they will follow the upward trend of US soybeans. The strategy is to mainly conduct range operations on M2601, lay out long positions at the lower edge of the range, and gradually reduce positions at high prices. Spot enterprises should increase positions in a rolling manner [6]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week ending August 22, the palm oil main 01 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 9592 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 01 contract fell 76 yuan/ton to 8458 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 133 yuan/ton to 9890 yuan/ton. The domestic oil market showed slight differentiation this week [80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil only accumulated to 2.13 million tons, lower than market expectations. In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production increase was slow, so the inventory accumulation speed may continue to slow down. In Indonesia, the ending inventory continued to decline to 2.53 million tons in June. In China, palm oil imports have increased, and the short - term supply is expected to remain loose [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The Pro Farmer survey estimated the 25/26 season US soybean yield to be 53 bushels per acre, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, the USDA August report unexpectedly lowered the sown area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the overall supply - demand situation has tightened. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient until October, but after November, the supply may tighten, which is expected to drive the inventory of soybean oil to decline [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, which will seriously affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. In the short - term, although there are market rumors about the purchase of Australian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed in China is expected to be tight before November, which is conducive to the reduction of rapeseed oil inventory [80]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. The strategy is to consider long positions on dips or rolling long positions for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long strategy of the palm oil 1 - 5 spread [80].