【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：利率策略|“反内卷”走弱不改债券弱势，降息已难成利好-20250825

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market continues to exhibit weakness, with interest rates on the rise and a widening yield spread, particularly between 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which closed at 1.7818% and 2.0775% respectively, reflecting increases of 3.5 basis points and 3.0 basis points from the previous week [4][9] - The "anti-involution" trend that had previously driven market dynamics has weakened, leading to a return to a focus on fundamental pricing, particularly in the commodity market, where prices have reverted to levels seen at the start of the "anti-involution" phase [5][6] - The report suggests that the bond market may struggle to respond positively to potential interest rate cuts, as the current environment favors equities and commodities over bonds, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences [9][10] Fixed Income Analysis - The bond market has been under pressure due to a tightening liquidity environment, with the 10-year to 1-year yield spread closing at 41.1 basis points, an increase of 3.11 basis points from the previous week [4] - The report highlights a "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets, where strong equity performance has suppressed bond market activity, leading to a perception of bonds as a "weak asset" [7][8] - The report notes that the bond market's price movements appear to be on a downward trajectory, with significant gaps in price action between equities and bonds, indicating a bearish outlook for bonds [8] Commodity Market Insights - The report identifies three main reasons for the recent decline in commodity prices: policy signals indicating a correction in the "anti-involution" trend, the approaching delivery month for major contracts affecting pricing dynamics, and the seasonal weakness typically observed in August [5][6] - Despite the recent downturn, there is an expectation that the "anti-involution" trend may still have momentum, particularly in sectors like new energy, where policy support continues to drive market sentiment [6] - The report suggests that the commodity market may experience a shift in trading logic from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," as the fundamental demand remains stable [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is characterized by a strong risk appetite, with significant inflows into equities as evidenced by rising financing balances [17] - The analysis of historical price and volume data suggests that the current market conditions may resemble previous bullish phases, particularly in 2014 and 2020, indicating potential for continued upward movement in the equity markets [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming geopolitical events and domestic policy developments, which could further influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [16][18]