碳酸锂周报：短期供应充足，价格宽幅震荡-20250825

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]