贵金属日评：美联储鲍威尔释放9月降息信号，特朗普威胁俄乌双方不谈就制裁-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, Trump threatened economic sanctions on Russia and Ukraine if they don't talk, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when prices decline [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - Spot and Futures Prices: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of spot Shanghai Gold T+D was 773.40, down 1.72 from the previous day and 4.26 from the previous week; the closing price of the futures active contract was 9192.00, up 30.00 from the previous day and down 66.00 from the previous week. The closing price of London Gold Spot was 3334.25 dollars/ounce, down 4.05 from the previous day and 9.60 from the previous week. The closing price of London Silver Spot was 38.01 dollars/ounce, up 0.44 from the previous day and down 0.31 from the previous week [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of spot Shanghai Gold T+D on August 22, 2025, was 21306.00, down 918.00 from the previous day and up 2276.00 from the previous week. The open interest of the futures active contract was 303690.00, down 3408.00 from the previous day and 47052.00 from the previous week [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis (spot - futures) of gold on August 22, 2025, was - 1.77, up 1.69 from the previous day and 1.09 from the previous week. The spread (near - far) of gold was - 16.00, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.00 from the previous week [1] Important Information - Fed and Interest Rates: Wall Street Journal reporter Mick Timiraos said that Powell signaled a September rate cut while suggesting the market should not expect aggressive easing. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in mainly short - term Treasury bonds in Q3 to replenish the cash account, and the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. US inflation data in July increased, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] - International Politics: Trump said that if the leaders of Russia and Ukraine don't hold a direct meeting within two weeks, he will make "very important decisions", possibly "large - scale sanctions or tariffs" [1] - Global Central Banks: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1] Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to lay out long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: London Gold has support around 3200 - 3300 and resistance around 3400 - 3500; Shanghai Gold has support around 760 - 770 and resistance around 800 - 810; London Silver has support around 34 - 36 and resistance around 37 - 40; Shanghai Silver has support around 8500 - 8700 and resistance around 9100 - 9500 [1]